TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 17, 2013…ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT…PHFC

JUNE 17, 2013…11:45 A.M. EDT UPDATE:  INVEST 93L WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AS OF 11:00 A.M. EDT.

I have no change at the moment to forecast track or intensity…T.D. 2 does have a good chance at becoming a Tropical Storm once in the BOC, prior to its second landfall.

The following information was available from the NHC as of the 11:00 a.m. advisory

11:00 AM EDT Mon Jun 17
Location: 16.2°N 87.6°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb/29.77 in
Max sustained: 35 mph

HURREVAC TRACKING MAP
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

Good day everyone!

The 12Z ATCF FTP data had the center of INVEST 93L located near 16.0N…87.1W this morning.  Based on satellite loop imagery, this position seems pretty reasonable.

INVEST 93L FLOATER SATELLITE IMAGERY

WESTERN ATLANTIC IMAGERY

The disturbance has shown signs of slow organization, however the proximity to land should inhibit further intensification prior to the disturbance making landfall in Belize later today, unless a center relocation/reformation occurs.  The NHC has increased the probability of this becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours to 40% (MEDIUM)

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

The current wind shear map from CIMSS indicates upper level winds are somewhat conducive for development, indicating a small upper level anticyclone developing very near the disturbance, however I am not expecting any further development before landfall.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT

Based on current guidance, the center may exit into the extreme Southern BOC, right near the coast.  At that time, the GFS shear forecast indicates upper level winds to be conducive for development.  Based on the probable close proximity to land, this may only have a chance to become a Tropical Depression for a brief period, before making landfall into Mexico.  One thought to bear in mind, should there be a center reformation, or should steering change to bring the disturbance further north of the guidance package, INVEST 93L could have a good run at becoming a Tropical Storm prior to its second landfall.  I will not rule this out at the moment.

GFS WIND ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST

Based on analysis of the current guidance suite, and forecast steering layers maps, I prefer the current solution of the TVCA/TVCN consensus models.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlyinvest1best93L.DYNAMIC

Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely in and around the path of this disturbance.

I will continue to monitor this disturbance over the next 48-72 hours for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, once again to reiterate, the next best possible chance for development will be near the end of this month, through July 10 as the majority of dynamic models indicate an upward motion phase of the MJO into the Caribbean and Atlantic basins, along with the forecast of lowering pressures based on the NCEP Ensemble 500 mb anomaly departure.

UKMET MJO FORECAST

500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JUNE 17, 2013…ISSUED 10:45 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm for keeping us informed with little “surprise” storm. Storm I have a question, did tropical Storm Andrea jump from invest right to a tropical storm, or was there a “depression ” stage before it became a tropical storm? Can a storm do that?

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      I’ll have to go back and check on the data for Andrea. Yes, it can “per se'” or can appear to…if it’s hard to determine a Low Level Circulation (closed) while organizing, a system can already be at T.S. strength before one is clearly identified. If memory serves me correctly, we’ve had waves come off of Africa so strong, that they were designated right away at TS strength. Doesn’t happen often however.

  2. stefanie says:

    Thanks Storm. 🙂

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. A couple of models have this system possibly affecting the EPAC…possibly Cabo San Lucas …what do you think?

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      If it does, it would most likely be just rain…once it makes a second landfall, I don’t expect it to hold together for that far.

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