Happy Fathers Day!
An area of disturbed weather we’ve been watching in the extreme SW Caribbean Sea, has been designated as INVEST 93L located near 14.6N, 83.7W This disturbance is moving to the WNW at around 15-20 mph.
The NHC has increased the probability of this becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours to 30% (MEDIUM).
Based on current steering, 93L should continue to the WNW over the next 24-48 hours with slight fluctuations along the path, as a ridge centered over FL. and the extreme Northern Bahamas provides a west to WNW flow, with a weakness noted over much of Mexico.
The current run of the forecast steering layers maps indicates not very much change to the flow over the next 72 hours. Based on these analyses, I expect 93L to possibly enter the very extreme Southern portion of the Gulf of Honduras within the next 36-48 hours, then emerge most likely into the extreme Southern BOC for a very brief period, and could come ashore in the outlined area in Mexico.
Albeit the system looks fairly organized, the strongest vorticity is at the mid levels in the atmosphere. This system has yet to acquire a surface circulation.
Based on current wind shear, values are running 20-30 knots over the mid level center, however the flow is diffluent, and upper level divergence is moderate at the moment
As far as further development, there may be a slight chance for better organization could occur if this emerges in the Gulf of Honduras. However, if this does emerge in the BOC, further development is doubtful, as the current wind shear forecast indicates wind shear levels will be non conducive for development, shown in the circled area of the Zonal Shear Forecast map.
I will continue to monitor this disturbance during the next 72 hours for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, it appears the next probability for possible development will be around the 29th of this month, through the 10th of July, as a decent upward motion phase of the MJO and lowering pressures are forecast in the W. Caribbean and GOMEX at that time. This does not mean development is a sure thing, but indicates an increase in favorable conditions for tropical development.
500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)