TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L SYNOPSIS…JUNE 16, 2013…ISSUED 4:10 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Happy Fathers Day!

An area of disturbed weather we’ve been watching in the extreme SW Caribbean Sea, has been designated as INVEST 93L located near 14.6N,  83.7W  This disturbance is moving to the WNW at around 15-20 mph.

WESTERN ATLANTIC AND 93L FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP

The NHC has increased the probability of this becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours to 30% (MEDIUM).

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Based on current steering, 93L should continue to the WNW over the next 24-48 hours with slight fluctuations along the path, as a ridge centered over FL. and the extreme Northern Bahamas provides a west to WNW flow, with a weakness noted over much of Mexico.

STEERING LAYER 700-850mb

The current run of the forecast steering layers maps indicates not very much change to the flow over the next 72 hours.  Based on these analyses, I expect 93L to possibly enter the very extreme Southern portion of the Gulf of Honduras within the next 36-48 hours, then emerge most likely into the extreme Southern BOC for a very brief period, and could come ashore in the outlined area in Mexico.
tracking_chart_atlantic.93L
Albeit the system looks fairly organized, the strongest vorticity is at the mid levels in the atmosphere.  This system has yet to acquire a surface circulation.

CIMSS VORTICITY MAPS
850 MB

700 MB

500 MB

Based on current wind shear, values are running 20-30 knots over the mid level center, however the flow is diffluent, and upper level divergence is moderate at the moment

UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE

As far as further development, there may be a slight chance for better organization could occur if this emerges in the Gulf of Honduras.  However, if this does emerge in the BOC, further development is doubtful, as the current wind shear forecast indicates wind shear levels will be non conducive for development, shown in the circled area of the Zonal Shear Forecast map.

GFS ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST
850200ushear12

I will continue to monitor this disturbance during the next 72 hours for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, it appears the next probability for possible development will be around the 29th of this month, through the 10th of July, as a decent upward motion phase of the MJO and lowering pressures are forecast in the W. Caribbean and GOMEX at that time.  This does not mean development is a sure thing, but indicates an increase in favorable conditions for tropical development.

MJO FORECAST

500 MB ANOMALY DEPARTURE

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 93L SYNOPSIS…JUNE 16, 2013…ISSUED 4:10 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. stefanie says:

    Thanks Storm. Hope your Father’s Day was a good one. 🙂 On summer night shift hours again. I miss everything. 🙂

  2. originallt says:

    Happy Father’s Day Storm, and thanks for the update on 93L

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Happy Fathers Day…a well deserved day for you!!!

  4. jbirdfiremedic says:

    Happy Father’s Day Storm!

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