SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JUNE 13, 2013…ISSUED 10:00 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good morning everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA…CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND…DELAWARE…SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN JERSEY…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES…THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND EASTERN GULF STATES…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

TORNADO PROB

WIND PROB

HAIL

Based on forecast sounding parameters, and current radar loops, a squall line associated with an MCS will be passing through MD, DE, and NJ within the next 1-2 hours.  The line of storms appears to be in more of a bowed line echo, which indicates the possibility of damaging straight line winds, possibly severe hail, and heavy downpours.  Indications in the outlook there could be a second round later this afternoon, should the atmosphere recover and become sufficiently destabilized.

Analysis of severe weather software indicates models to be all over the place within the region, as far as forecast parameters.  So, in analyzing the SPC outlook, Meso-Analysis page, and SPC SREF Model, and blending the model output from the severe weather software, the greatest risk for tornadoes should lie within the hatched area on the SPC Wind Outlook.  At this time, I am not expecting a PDS from this.

Please sue the following maps for updated watches and information

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES 

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING MAP…CLICK ON AN AREA OF INTEREST

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:

The Atlantic Basin is fairly quiet once again.  An area of disturbed weather associated with a Tropical Wave, east of the axis, continues to move westward.  Wind shear is running 20-30 knots in the path of this wave, and I do not look for development of this wave as upper level winds are forecast to remain non conducive for development over the next 96 hours.  However, this area of convection may come into play around the 23rd of the month.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC WIDE VIEW LOOP

CATL LOOP

Analysis of Global Models this morning indicates the GFS has dropped the idea of cyclogenesis in the BOC in about 8-10 days.  It had been showing good consistency of the solution over the past few days.  Albeit, it dropped the formation of Andrea a few times before displaying and holding on to cyclogenesis with her.  There could be the possibility we may not see development begin around the 23rd.  However, I am going to see if the GFS picks back up on it’s formation solution, as 2 items in this forecast package indicate favorable signs for possible development…the NCEP Ensemble 500 mb anomaly departure forecast still indicates a lowering of pressure over the area, with a decent lowering of pressure of -2.5.  This can be followed in the graphics, which would appear to indicate our wave out near 55W may be a trigger for development.

NCEP ENSEMBLE 500 MB MEAN NORM. ANOMALY

The next feature, is a return of the MJO upward motion pulse.

CPC MJO FORECAST

The current wind shear forecast indicates an upper level anticyclone developing still, over the extreme BOC in about 7-8 days.  This will be monitored to see if conditions will still be somewhat favorable for development at the time of lowering pressures, and arrival of the CATL Tropical Wave.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 96 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather, Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT / TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JUNE 13, 2013…ISSUED 10:00 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm. So far up here, not too bad,most of the severe weather has passed by to my South, over PA., and NJ–and further South. Could have some more bad weather later on today. And good question Greg.

  2. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm i have notice this hurricane season different than last hurricane season.The reason i have notice last year it was hot early and the alantic was cooler. This year we were cooler and the alantic basin was warmer Mr storm with it being cooler here and warmer down there does that tend to lower pressures in the tropices which in return affects the hurricane season? I was just wondering.

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      In no uncertain terms…yes.

      • dellamom says:

        I don’t know about you, Greg, but I am a bit worried about this season!

        • Greg goodman says:

          I am to dellamom in live in mobile but we have Mr storm he watching things he is great. I hope one day to meet him

          • dellamom says:

            I am in Mandeville, just north of Lake Pontchartrain in Louisiana and also in Chalmette, southeast of Lake Pontchartrain. Chalmette is in St. Bernard Parish, just beyond the Lower Ninth Ward you all heard so much about. What you probably didn’t hear is that only 2 buildings in St. Bernard Parish did not get water during Katrina. Everythig else in the Parish was wiped out. It still has not come back to nearly what it was and probably never will. I was told that some residents there have been advised that their flood insurance may go from around $500 a year to over $10,000 a year, and possibly $20,000. That means that people who came back after Katrina and spent the last 8 years rebuilding their lives may not be able to afford to stay there and may just have to walk away from everything they rebuilt with no money to start over elsewhere. Scary times there.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s