Good morning everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA…CENTRAL AND EASTERN MARYLAND…DELAWARE…SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN JERSEY…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES…THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND EASTERN GULF STATES…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…
Based on forecast sounding parameters, and current radar loops, a squall line associated with an MCS will be passing through MD, DE, and NJ within the next 1-2 hours. The line of storms appears to be in more of a bowed line echo, which indicates the possibility of damaging straight line winds, possibly severe hail, and heavy downpours. Indications in the outlook there could be a second round later this afternoon, should the atmosphere recover and become sufficiently destabilized.
Analysis of severe weather software indicates models to be all over the place within the region, as far as forecast parameters. So, in analyzing the SPC outlook, Meso-Analysis page, and SPC SREF Model, and blending the model output from the severe weather software, the greatest risk for tornadoes should lie within the hatched area on the SPC Wind Outlook. At this time, I am not expecting a PDS from this.
Please sue the following maps for updated watches and information
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:
The Atlantic Basin is fairly quiet once again. An area of disturbed weather associated with a Tropical Wave, east of the axis, continues to move westward. Wind shear is running 20-30 knots in the path of this wave, and I do not look for development of this wave as upper level winds are forecast to remain non conducive for development over the next 96 hours. However, this area of convection may come into play around the 23rd of the month.
Analysis of Global Models this morning indicates the GFS has dropped the idea of cyclogenesis in the BOC in about 8-10 days. It had been showing good consistency of the solution over the past few days. Albeit, it dropped the formation of Andrea a few times before displaying and holding on to cyclogenesis with her. There could be the possibility we may not see development begin around the 23rd. However, I am going to see if the GFS picks back up on it’s formation solution, as 2 items in this forecast package indicate favorable signs for possible development…the NCEP Ensemble 500 mb anomaly departure forecast still indicates a lowering of pressure over the area, with a decent lowering of pressure of -2.5. This can be followed in the graphics, which would appear to indicate our wave out near 55W may be a trigger for development.
NCEP ENSEMBLE 500 MB MEAN NORM. ANOMALY
The next feature, is a return of the MJO upward motion pulse.
CPC MJO FORECAST
The current wind shear forecast indicates an upper level anticyclone developing still, over the extreme BOC in about 7-8 days. This will be monitored to see if conditions will still be somewhat favorable for development at the time of lowering pressures, and arrival of the CATL Tropical Wave.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 96 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)