UPDATE…JUNE 11, 2013…2:30 P.M. EDT
The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/MID MO VLY…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE N CNTRL HIGH PLNS E INTO THE MID MS VLY…
Based on analysis of forecast soundings information through F5 Data Severe Weather Software, indications are that the most likely chance for tornadic activity should be within the red outline of the following map. Isolated strong tornadoes may most likely be encountered within the pink hatched areas.
Good day everyone!
The Tropical Atlantic is fairly quiet this morning.
Three Tropical waves were noted on the 06Z NHC Surface Analysis Map.
The wave located near 43-45W has just shown a flareup of convection. This wave is currently located where wind shear has been relaxing over the past 24-36 hours, and the GFS 06Z Zonal Shear map indicates upper level winds at the moment are more conducive for development than destructive. Albeit, I am not expecting development of this wave, as wind shear is forecast to increase within the next 24 hours, I will continue to monitor the wave, as it could possibly be a catalyst for possible development in the BOC region in a few days.
Also noted in the satellite loop imagery is an area of showers and thunderstorms near 10W, which has some slight cyclonic turning.
Analysis this morning of Global Computer Models indicates the GFS still being consistent with cyclogenesis, showing a weak system in about 9 days (216 hours) , and another system in 14 days. The ECMWF is showing agreement with the GFS on a system in the BOC at the same time frame, 216 hours.
The current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates wind shear is running about 30 knots over the GOMEX right now. The current zonal wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates the wind shear pattern to relax over the Yucatan Peninsula at 180 hours from 06Z, with a developing upper level anticyclone. The CMC is in fair agreement with this, and placing the forecast map in motion, the upper level anticyclone seems to be trending toward the BOC at that time.
The NCEP Ensemble Mean Anomaly Departure map indicates lowering pressures over Central America at that time, at both 216 hours, and at 336 hours over the Yucatan Peninsula and BOC area. This has been consistent now for the past 72 hours.
NCEP ENSEMBLE BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS PROBABILITY (120-240 HOURS) MULTI MODEL
Based on these factors, I cannot rule out the formation of a tropical system per the model solutions, albeit most likely Tropical Depression status, unless the upper pattern changes.
I will continue to monitor this for any significant change to model solutions.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 72-96 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)