Good day everyone!
Thanks for the comments during the weekend! I appreciate it.
Fairly tranquil in the tropics this morning. An area of showers and thunderstorms is located in the BOC, and is associated with a divergent flow at the 200 mb level, creating weak to moderate upper level divergence, enhancing convection. Wind shear of 25-30 knots is over the GOMEX at the moment.
Albeit wind shear is forecast to relax somewhat over the next 24-30 hours with semi-ridging in place, wind shear values increase in about 40 hours to non conducive levels. I therefore do not anticipate any development in the GOMEX or BOC during the next 96 hours.
Tropical Waves were analyzed near 73W, 63W, and 32W on the NHC 06Z Surface Analysis Map. I have the current positions marked in the satellite still.
Analysis of the Central Atlantic satellite loop indicates the tropical wave located near 36W has taken on some cyclonic rotation at he southern end of the wave axis, and appears to be embedded within the ITCZ at the moment. Although there is very limited convection with this feature, I am going to monitor this wave, as this may be the catalyst for what the GFS has been showing for the past few days, consistently, in terms of another possible development around the Yucatan / BOC area in about 12-14 days.
Analysis of the Global Models indicates the GFS does show another weak development, in fact 2, within the next 2 weeks. I cannot totally rule this solution out yet, as the GFS shear forecast, which only goes out to 6 days, indicates upper level winds improving over the Gulf of Honduras area at the end of the forecast period in 180 hours. The GFS hints at a system beginning in about 6 days in the BOC, and then the second at around 312 hours, or 13 days from now. I’m somewhat skeptical on the first, however have a little more confidence in the second, as the NCEP ensemble projection of 500 mb Mean Norm. Anomaly Departures indicates lowering of pressures in the NW Caribbean at that time. I will continue to monitor the wave in the eastern Atlantic, and look for more model consensus over the next few days regarding any development near the Yucatan.
Elsewhere, another Tropical Wave just exited the African coast.
EATL SATELLITE IMAGE
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 72-96 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)