TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JUNE 10, 2013…ISSUED 11:45 A.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED

Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

 

Good day everyone!

Thanks for the comments during the weekend!  I appreciate it.

Fairly tranquil in the tropics this morning.  An area of showers and thunderstorms is located in the BOC, and is associated with a divergent flow at the 200 mb level, creating weak to moderate upper level divergence, enhancing convection.  Wind shear of 25-30 knots is over the GOMEX at the moment.

Albeit wind shear is forecast to relax somewhat over the next 24-30 hours with semi-ridging in place, wind shear values increase in about 40 hours to non conducive levels.  I therefore do not anticipate any development in the GOMEX or BOC during the next 96 hours.

A TUTT low is noted near 25.0N…70.0W, with a trailing TUTT axis to the SW.
TUTT

Tropical Waves were analyzed near 73W, 63W, and 32W on the NHC 06Z Surface Analysis Map.  I have the current positions marked in the satellite still.

06Z NHC SURFACE ANALYSIS MAP

rgb-lATLANTIC.WAVES

Analysis of the Central Atlantic  satellite loop indicates the tropical wave located near 36W has taken on some cyclonic rotation at he southern end of the wave axis, and appears to be embedded within the ITCZ at the moment.  Although there is very limited convection with this feature, I am going to monitor this wave, as this may be the catalyst for what the GFS has been showing for the past few days, consistently, in terms of another possible development around the Yucatan / BOC area in about 12-14 days.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP

GFS FORECAST MODEL
06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical228

06zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical312

Analysis of the Global Models indicates the GFS does show another weak development, in fact 2, within the next 2 weeks.  I cannot totally rule this solution out  yet, as the GFS shear forecast, which only goes out to 6 days, indicates upper level winds improving over the Gulf of Honduras area at the end of the forecast period in 180 hours.  The GFS hints at a system beginning in about 6 days in the BOC, and then the second at around 312 hours, or 13 days from now.  I’m somewhat skeptical on the first, however have a little more confidence in the second, as the NCEP ensemble projection of 500 mb Mean Norm. Anomaly Departures indicates lowering of pressures in the NW Caribbean at that time.  I will continue to monitor the wave in the eastern Atlantic, and look for more model consensus over the next few days regarding any development near the Yucatan.

NCEP 500 MB MEAN NORM ANOMALY DEPARTURE

Elsewhere, another Tropical Wave just exited the African coast.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGE

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 72-96 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JUNE 10, 2013…ISSUED 11:45 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm what about us here on the north gulf coast what do you think we look like the rest of the hurricane season.

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      Again, that will depend on the steering pattern down the road. But, like I said, if things pan out from what we as meteorologists have been looking at, I think the entire GC should stay alert.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Hi Storm, I just gotta ask. Do you think TX will be protected again this year or do you think we have as good as a chance as any other area ?

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