Good day everyone!
Tropical Storm Andrea is now racing quickly to the NE. Based on the 8:00 a.m. EDT Intermediate Advisory from the NHC, the following was available on Tropical Storm Andrea:
8:00 AM EDT Fri Jun 7
Location: 33.4°N 80.2°W
Moving: NE at 28 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb / 29.41 in
Max sustained: 45 mph
Based on satellite imagery, frontal overlays, and information in the NHC forecast discussion, Andrea has already begun her process of becoming a post / extra-tropical cyclone. Andrea should maintain current strength over the next 36 hours, before a slow weakening trend begins. I concur with the NHC Forecast Intensity Scheme.
Based on analysis of current, and forecast steering layers maps, I have no change in my tack thinking, and am inline with the NHC official track. Residents along the Eastern Seaboard can expect heavy rains, local flooding, and minor coastal flooding, especially at the time of high tide. Tornadoes are possible as she continues to move to the NE. Please monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS office statements for warnings to your area.
NWS LOCAL STATEMENTS
NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR AREA)
Elsewhere, INVEST 92L has pretty much been sheared apart, and upper level winds are forecast to remain non conducive in the path for the next 96 hours or so. I am not expecting any development of this as it continues WNW.
Another Tropical Wave was added to the 06Z Surface Analysis Map from the NHC.
Satellite loop imagery indicates a possible, very diffuse circulation at the lower levels, however there is a lack of any significant convection. Satellite stills clearly show the inverted “V” signature of this wave.
Currently, wind shear is taking a toll on this feature, however the GFS wind shear forecast shows upper level winds may become a little more conducive in about 3-4 days, and we could see some slightly better organization from this. However, current and forecast steering suggests this will run into South America before anything significant could occur.
I will be monitoring things on and off this weekend, but for all intents and purposes, the office is closed for the weekend.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)