TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L / CATL TROPICAL WAVE SYNOPSIS…JUNE05, 2013…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good day everyone!

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 91L continues to spin this morning in the south central GOMEX.  As of the current TWO from the NHC, the probability of 91L becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours has increased to 50% (MEDIUM).

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Satellite loop imagery this morning still shows a disorganized system, albeit cyclonic rotation has tightened over the past 24 hours.  All of the heavy convection remains east and SE of the center, due to 20-25 knots of westerly wind shear over the system, as indicated in the current wind shear map from CIMSS.  Satellite images are linked so you may play the loop.

Based on analysis of satellite floater loop channel IR2, I have placed the center near 25.0N;89.0W.  However, current 925 mb vorticity satellite information from PSU e-WALL indicates the vort max to be located just on the very extreme edge of the convection.

INVEST.91L.IR2

925 MB VORTICITY MAP

91L is currently still located in a weak steering regime, and may remain quasi-stationary most of the day, and may even attempt a cyclonic loop before heading NE.  Beginning later tonight, early tomorrow, this system should begin to move toward the NNE then NE as an approaching trof makes its presence known.

CURRENT 700-850 MB LAYER MEAN STEERING

The exact location of where the “center” comes ashore, will depend on how long this remains stationary, and how strong it becomes.  Should it stay where it is longer, a track on the right side of the guidance package could be in order.  However, based on the current run of the forecast steering layers maps, model guidance at the moment looks the most plausible, with the center coming ashore around the Big Bend area of Florida, or slightly north.

DYNAMIC MODEL AND GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
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As far as strength goes, wind shear has continued to slowly decrease over the system, however not enough right now for the LLC to become stacked under the convection.  Indications from the GFS and CMC show wind shear to relax over the next 24 hours, with a small upper level anticyclone developing, however with a shear zone remaining very close to the western periphery of this disturbance.  Never the less, this may be just enough for 91L to attain depression status, to possibly minimal Sub-tropical storm just prior to coming ashore.

Portions of the Florida Peninsula may pick up 4″-7″ inches of precipitation, however heavier amounts could be experienced in heavier, slower moving thunderstorm cells.

The West Central Florida area is currently under a FLOOD WATCH:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
521 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

.WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HEADS NORTH
THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

FLZ049>052-055>057-060>062-065-070000-
/O.CON.KTBW.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-130607T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-
SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...
CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...
WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...
NORTH PORT...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...PORT CHARLOTTE...
PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
521 AM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
  CHARLOTTE AND LEE. IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...DESOTO...HARDEE...
   HIGHLANDS...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...PASCO...PINELLAS...POLK
  AND SARASOTA.

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH
  LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

Some minor coastal flooding may occur at the time of high tide along portions of the watch area, with some minor beach erosion, as waves will be running 7-10 ft near the coast as the system makes its closest approach.

WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL

I will be monitoring 91L during the day, and should have another update later this evening, unless an update is warranted sooner.

Elsewhere, I am monitoring a tropical wave in the CATL, located near 10.0N;41.0W.  The wave is currently moving to the west at 15-20 mph. Currently, upper level winds are semi-conducive, however this will very likely run into wind shear as it approaches 50W Longitude in the next 72 hours. I will continue to monitor this for any significant changes during the next 72 hours.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 5-7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L / CATL TROPICAL WAVE SYNOPSIS…JUNE05, 2013…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks storm. If this storms moves slowly , as you hint it may do, I don’t see how it’s moisture can get up here by Friday as the local Mets are saying here. I think the moisture from 91L may make it up to my area by Saturday , if and when it gets here. I believe our Friday rain up here will come from that system moving Eastward from the upper Mid West. How do you think of the timing for that 91L moisture up here?

    • originallt says:

      Also , sorry about your Boss’s loss, Monty.

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      Once this gets picked up by the westerlies, it’ll begin to get a move on. In order for me to get good timing for your area, I’ll have to see once this starts moving NE.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looks like you guys are in for a very wet few days. Stay safe down there!! The bosses mom passed away early this morning…not a good day around here.

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