TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L SYNOPSIS…JUNE 04, 2013…ISSUED 10:05 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

INVEST 91L is still hanging around, but barely this morning.  The NHC is still indicating a MEDIUM (30%) chance for this becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

There has been a little bit of change in the surrounding atmosphere, in that dry air has intruded the GOMEX, hampering development this morning, although given the area is still an elongated mess of a trof, I didn’t see any outflow boundaries indicating any dry air ingestion…yet.

91L FLOATER SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

91L AVN LOOP

An area of deep convection is noted to the SE of the low center, and is most likely maintaining as it lies on the edge of TCHP running around 60-80 kJ/cm2

TCHP

The current wind shear product from CIMSS still indicates NW wind shear of about 25 knots over the area.  Based on this same product, wind shear has been slowly diminishing over the past 24 hours.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT

The current run of the wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds could become more conducive for further slow development, albeit not optimal, over the next 48 hours, with a small upper level anticyclone projected.  However, if dry air persists, it would be doubtful any real good organization would occur.  At best shot, there could be the possibility of tropical depression status before this is all said and done, but looking at the current conditions, this is slim.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Regardless of development or not, this area of disturbed weather is slated to bring rainfall totals along the FL. Peninsula of 7-10 inches in some areas, before moving up the Eastern Seaboard.

Based on analysis of Global models this morning, current and forecast steering layers maps, and ATCF Model Guidance, the consensus is 91L will eventually move of toward the NE and should reach the Big Bend area of Florida.  This will depend on where the actual circulation center finally takes shape, vice the competing vortices over the past 24 hours.  Albeit some plot maps have this located near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Shortwave IR2 floater imagery indicates the actual center may be located near 24.6N;87.0W, which coincides with the current 850-700 mb vorticity maps.  Another area of rotation is noted closer to the coast and to the SSE.

IR2 FLOATER IMAGES

91L SWIR

CIMSS 850 MB – 700 MB MAPS

I will continue to monitor 91L for any significant changes throughout the day.

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Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5-7 days.

Have a blessed day!

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L SYNOPSIS…JUNE 04, 2013…ISSUED 10:05 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looks like CHS could get dumped on…passing on to friends/family.

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