Good day everyone!
INVEST 91L is still hanging around, but barely this morning. The NHC is still indicating a MEDIUM (30%) chance for this becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
There has been a little bit of change in the surrounding atmosphere, in that dry air has intruded the GOMEX, hampering development this morning, although given the area is still an elongated mess of a trof, I didn’t see any outflow boundaries indicating any dry air ingestion…yet.
An area of deep convection is noted to the SE of the low center, and is most likely maintaining as it lies on the edge of TCHP running around 60-80 kJ/cm2
The current wind shear product from CIMSS still indicates NW wind shear of about 25 knots over the area. Based on this same product, wind shear has been slowly diminishing over the past 24 hours.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT
The current run of the wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds could become more conducive for further slow development, albeit not optimal, over the next 48 hours, with a small upper level anticyclone projected. However, if dry air persists, it would be doubtful any real good organization would occur. At best shot, there could be the possibility of tropical depression status before this is all said and done, but looking at the current conditions, this is slim.
Regardless of development or not, this area of disturbed weather is slated to bring rainfall totals along the FL. Peninsula of 7-10 inches in some areas, before moving up the Eastern Seaboard.
Based on analysis of Global models this morning, current and forecast steering layers maps, and ATCF Model Guidance, the consensus is 91L will eventually move of toward the NE and should reach the Big Bend area of Florida. This will depend on where the actual circulation center finally takes shape, vice the competing vortices over the past 24 hours. Albeit some plot maps have this located near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, Shortwave IR2 floater imagery indicates the actual center may be located near 24.6N;87.0W, which coincides with the current 850-700 mb vorticity maps. Another area of rotation is noted closer to the coast and to the SSE.
CIMSS 850 MB – 700 MB MAPS
I will continue to monitor 91L for any significant changes throughout the day.
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Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5-7 days.
Have a blessed day!