TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L EVENING UPDATE…JUNE 04, 2013…ISSUED 4:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good afternoon!

The NHC has indicated the probability of INVEST 91L has now increased to a MEDIUM (40%) chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Afternoon satellite loop imagery indicates the center of the disturbance has become a little better defined, and is located near 24.2N;88.4W.  The center at the moment is drifting slowly toward the north, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 18 hours before a trof picks this up and turns it off toward the NE, based on the current forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site.

91L FLOATER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GOMEX IMAGERY

Analysis of Global models this afternoon indicate all of the models to be in agreement of a possible minimal Tropical Storm developing, and moving ashore around the Big Bend area of the Florida Peninsula.  Current consensus of minimum pressure is 1003 mb or 29.62 inches of mercury.

GFS
12zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical036

ECMWF
12zeurotropical500mbSLP048

CMC GGEM
12zggem500mbHGHTPMSLtropical066
UKMET
12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropical048

NAVGEM
12znogaps500mbHGHTPMSLtropical042

GFS ENSEMBLE
12zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical048

The latest analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates wind shear has relaxed by about 5 knots, and has been slowly on the decrease all day.  The GFS and CMC current run of the wind shear forecast is in better agreement of wind shear relaxing further during the next 18-24 hours, with an upper level anticyclone forecast over the system.  Albeit not optimal, if this pattern comes to fruition, it may be enough to allow for our first tropical storm of the season.  It is also noted that vorticity from the 850 mb to the 500 mb level has become better vertically stacked.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS

GFS / CMC WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Once again, regardless of whether or not this system develops, copious amounts of rain can be expected over the next several days over the Florida Peninsula, and up the east coast of the U.S. where this may track.

I will have another full update on INVEST 91L in the a.m.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L EVENING UPDATE…JUNE 04, 2013…ISSUED 4:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Heading back to the Coast Thurs. Thanks for NOT pointing anything toward the WSTRN Gulf. I always view the start of the season with mixed emotions!! Sh#$ happens but please,Dear Lord, not here! On the other hand, thanks Lord for not including our area for the last 40 years!!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I echo Elliot…when God made you…He broke the mold!!

  3. Elliot Lisak says:

    You’re the best. Clear, Concise, To The Point, No Hype. We should clone you!

    Regards,
    e

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