The NHC has indicated the probability of INVEST 91L has now increased to a MEDIUM (40%) chance of becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Afternoon satellite loop imagery indicates the center of the disturbance has become a little better defined, and is located near 24.2N;88.4W. The center at the moment is drifting slowly toward the north, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 18 hours before a trof picks this up and turns it off toward the NE, based on the current forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site.
Analysis of Global models this afternoon indicate all of the models to be in agreement of a possible minimal Tropical Storm developing, and moving ashore around the Big Bend area of the Florida Peninsula. Current consensus of minimum pressure is 1003 mb or 29.62 inches of mercury.
The latest analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates wind shear has relaxed by about 5 knots, and has been slowly on the decrease all day. The GFS and CMC current run of the wind shear forecast is in better agreement of wind shear relaxing further during the next 18-24 hours, with an upper level anticyclone forecast over the system. Albeit not optimal, if this pattern comes to fruition, it may be enough to allow for our first tropical storm of the season. It is also noted that vorticity from the 850 mb to the 500 mb level has become better vertically stacked.
CURRENT WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS
GFS / CMC WIND SHEAR FORECAST
Once again, regardless of whether or not this system develops, copious amounts of rain can be expected over the next several days over the Florida Peninsula, and up the east coast of the U.S. where this may track.
I will have another full update on INVEST 91L in the a.m.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)