TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JUNE 03, 2013…ISSUED 11:35 A.M. EDT…PHFC

June 03, 2013…BRIEF UPDATE INVEST 91L…EXTREME SOUTHERN GOMEX:

The NHC has recently increased the probability of INVEST 91L becoming a Tropical Cyclone during the next 48 hours to MEDIUM (30%).

Information contained in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 8:00 p.m., and satellite imagery suggests the circulation associated with this low has become slightly better defined.

Current products from the CIMSS site indicate an outflow channel on the northern semi-circle has become well established again.

The latest run of the GFS and CMC wind shear forecast products indicates upper level winds may become more conducive for development of 91L over the next 42-48 hours.  Wind shear over the area has been slowly decreasing over the past 24 hours, based on CIMSS Wind Shear tendency information.  Should this trend continue, we could see some better, but slow development of 91L.  At this time, I cannot speculate as to whether 91L will attain depression status over the next 42 hours, until I see conditions over the area improve more.

Given that 91L is still in a slow development stage, Model Guidance is not really useful, however based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, a track toward the western Florida Panhandle to the Big Bend area cannot be ruled out right now. Based on what Dynamic Model Guidance we have, I am leaning toward the CMCI track, and left of the GFS Ensemble suite.

18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE (COURTESY AMERICANWX.COM)

GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE

I will have a full update in the a.m.

I hate doing this, as I know money is scarce…however one site I use for Global Model maps, and the ATCF model guidance tracks is no longer a free site…they began yesterday charging a subscription fee.  This site is one of my main staples for forecasting.  This has forced me to reactivate another paid subscription site, along with which, I will have to create an account to the site that just went paid subscription.

Donations here are not mandatory, however every little bit helps, and is most truly appreciated to help offset my costs out of pocket.

Thank you for any consideration

Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!

Yesterday evening, the area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan area was designated as INVEST 91L.

The NHC has designated a 20% (Low) chance of this disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Satellite loop imagery this morning shows a very disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, as the area continues to be under 30 knots of wind shear at the moment.

INVEST 91L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

CURRENT WIND SHEAR FROM CIMSS

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST VARIOUS FORECAST TIMES

Analysis of the floater imagery of 91L indicates a very elongated trof of low pressure, and a familiar scenario we’ve seen in the past…multiple vortices.  It appears there may be a relocation of the dominant center trying to reform over the Peninsula itself, however a large turning in the cloud shield is centered near 22.7N;90.0W.  Convection has increased again east of the Peninsula, just south of Cozumel.

INVEST91L

Overall analysis of the current posted location per ATCF and NHC, current and forecast steering layers maps, current and forecast wind shear products, I am providing 2 possible scenarios on this:

1.)  Should 91L continue to drift NNW, and the true center is located NNE of the Yucatan Peninsula, forecast steering is now indicating a track more toward the Big Bend area to the Panhandle of Florida in about 48-72 hours as the steering flow changes to the NNE. If this occurs, 91L will not be able to take advantage of more favorable conditions in about 60-72 hours from now, and could very well dissipate.  Regardless of development, residents along the west coast of Florida should be prepared to deal with large amounts of rain from this over the next few days when it moves closer to the Florida Peninsula.

2.)  Should the center of 91L relocate to over the Yucatan Peninsula and remain at a drift or Quasi Stationary, the current wind shear forecast from both the GFS and CMC indicate an upper level anticyclone to develop, and relaxing wind shear in about 60-84 hours.  In fact, the GFS indicates pretty favorable conditions from that point, remaining for about a 4-5 day stretch over the channel and Florida Straits area.  If this scenario pans out, 91L would encounter a more favorable environment, and I would expect to see a little better development.

I will continue to monitor 91L throughout the day for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, 2 Tropical Waves are noted in the NHC 06Z Surface Analysis map.  The wave furthest east is also noted in Satellite imagery with a cyclonic signature noted.

EUMETSAT

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5-7 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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13 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JUNE 03, 2013…ISSUED 11:35 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm please email me. Your address iwill send a check we need you.

  2. Jake Cvetan says:

    I love this site I know its not much but I hope my donation helps.

  3. Storm,
    Please contact me as I would be honored to host your website at no charge. Email is provided.

  4. TexasHurricane says:

    Thank you Storm for your updates. I wonder if TX will be in the clear again this year. Last big one was Ike in 08. When I am able to help with a donation, I will be happy to.

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      If you can’t afford to, don’t sweat it. I don’t think at the moment the Gulf coast may escape this season, but we’ll know more come Aug/Sep

  5. originallt says:

    No Problem Storm, Soon, “A check will be in the mail”! Actually, CASH.

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      No hurry, LT! If ya can, great! If not, no problem…our economy ain’t exactly economical.

  6. javier valdes says:

    i saw that too i use that too but he want make money to run site so now you pay see Model

  7. Monty says:

    Consider it done Storm…you are a major asset to all of us!!

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