Good day all!
Sorry for the delay in this…had to run my oldest son to the ER this a.m. and late this afternoon as his asthma had gotten a little out of control.
The SPC has a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms indicated THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN OK…
…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN TX NEWD INTO WI…
…NWRN TX… EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK SWWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO NWRN TX WHERE A CU FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE. SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND LONG HODOGRAPHS WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET LATER IN THE EVENING COULD RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT AS WELL IF SUPERCELLS REMAIN.
…MUCH OF KS INTO ERN NEB…REMOVED MUCH OF THE AREA FROM SLIGHT RISK AS THE EARLIER MCS HAS RESULTED IN COOLER/MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY TO THE W ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORTICITY CENTER AND THERMAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CORES WITH 5 PERCENT COVERAGE EXPECTED.
…WRN AR…EXPANDED HIGHER TORNADO PROBABILITIES INTO THE AREA AS CLUSTERS OF CELLS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ROTATION. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS…AS WELL AS MODERATE SRH WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
12Z Soundings around the moderate risk area, and analysis of Severe Weather software from F5 Data indicate the greatest area for severe weather in red, and isolated strong tornadoes in the pink shading.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:
The disturbed weather that had been located in the Gulf of Honduras has dissipated.
EPAC depression Barbara had crossed into the extreme southern BOC earlier today, but is now a a remnant low. Based on current and forecast steering layers maps, this remnant should continue toward the NW and eventually wind up over Mexico in about 48-72 hours. I do not see any chance of regeneration, or any chance of this affecting the U.S.
Elsewhere, the Gulf Coast of the U.S. may not be totally free and clear. Analysis of the latest run of the Global Models tend to indicate a decent consensus at the moment, of another possible development either in the SW Caribbean near the Yucatan Peninsula, or just north of the Peninsula. 3 models that go out far enough in time…the GFS, ECMWF, and the CMC GGEM, indicated a system from a weak TD to a Low End TS. The GFS and GGEM both show a Florida solution at the moment, while the ECMWF indicates a solution toward the NOLA area.
Based on the current forecast wind shear map from the GFS, this may have some plausibility to it, as wind shear values relax in a small area associated with a small upper level anticyclone near the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, then expanding in a small swath toward the FL. west coast as the run goes out to 180 hours. The ERSL 500 mb anomaly departure also indicates a lowering of pressures over that area at the same time.
I will be monitoring this much closer as we get nearer that time period of between June 05-09.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5-7 days.
Have a great evening.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)