Good day everyone!
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR TODAY
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE…NW TX…WRN TO CNTRL OK AND WRN TO CNTRL KS…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS…MID-MO VALLEY AND MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY…
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION…NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND WRN TO SRN NEW ENGLAND…
…WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH TORNADOES LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Based on information contained in the current outlook, and analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather software, this event has the potential to become a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation). In isolated areas, this could become a DEADLY SITUATION as the Thermodynamic and Kinematic potential exists as of the 12Z morning soundings from around the center of the moderate risk area. Soundings this morning from Dodge City, Childress, and Lawton indicated a LOADED GUN sounding. This type of unstable atmosphere is one known to produce severe weather outbreaks, and even strong local tornado outbreaks. From the outlook:
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM DODGE CITY…CHILDRESS AND LAWTON SHOW LOADED-GUN SOUNDINGS WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 3500 J/KG…0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 C/KM.
THIS IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY ROBUST UPDRAFT THAT INITIATES. HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT BECOME DOMINANT.
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS WITH THE THREAT INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR DODGE CITY SWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK TO AROUND CHILDRESS WHERE SFC WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED.
DUE TO IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMICS…A 15 PERCENT TORNADO CONTOUR HAS BEEN ADDED FROM SW KS SWD INTO NW TX WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY A STRENGTHENING 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY THIS EVENING. SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOS.
NOAA Definition of Loaded Gun Sounding:
Loaded Gun (Sounding) – [Slang], a sounding characterized by extreme instability but containing a cap, such that explosive thunderstorm development can be expected if the cap can be weakened or the air below it heated sufficiently to overcome it.
Based on analysis of F5 Data, I have outlined in RED, the highest probability for tornado activity should parameters materialize. PINK shading indicates the highest probabilities for Strong, Long Tracked, Deadly tornadoes.
Initiation of this event will most likely begin to occur between 1:00 p.m. through late evening CDT. The following maps are linked to provide up to date watches, warnings, and Mesoscale discussions by clicking on them. Residents in the MODERATE RISK AREA are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, Local NWS office statements, and Local Media for any significant changes. IF A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA…SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:
An area of disturbed weather located in the Gulf of Honduras is associated with a general broad monsoonal trof and flow from the extreme eastern Pacific. This disturbed weather has not become organized over the past 6 hours, and convection has waned somewhat. Some slight cyclonic rotation is noted in the last few frames of the satellite loop imagery, however, there is no surface circulation with this feature at the moment.
Based on the current wind shear product from CIMSS, the area is undergoing around 30-35 kts of NW shear, with some slight diffluence aloft aiding in convective activity.
Based on the current forecast wind shear from the GFS, wind shear should relax somewhat in about 4-5 days within my forecast path for this area.
Based on current Layer Mean Steering and forecast steering layers maps, anything in the lower to mid level should drift toward the NW over the next 12 hours, then begin to move about 10-15 kts off toward the NW or NNW into the southern GOMEX/BOC.
As it stands right now, I am not expecting much development out of this, however the GFS does still insist on a Tropical Depression in the GOMEX by June 5. This may not be 100% ruled out at the moment, however this may be just a thunderstorm enhancing event for the west Florida coast.
I will continue to monitor the area for any significant changes.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected for the next 5-7 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)