Good day everyone!
The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS NEWD INTO THE LWR GRT LKS…
TROPICAL ATLANTIC SYNOPSIS:
First, let me stress to hours of operation for this hurricane season. Due to family time and life commitments, these hours WILL BE STRICTLY ADHERED TO, and may need to be modified due to unforeseen circumstances. Should there be a day I am not here, you can bet something is probably happening on my plate at home. The hours of operation are as follows:
Monday – Friday: 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Sat – Sun: As required
Once I have a synopsis FULLY posted (i.e., Here, client emails, etc.) I will field any questions between 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 Noon, and again from 2:00 – 4:00 p.m. Should we have an threatening system, whether to the Islands of the Caribbean, or more so the U.S Coastline, hours will be modified. If anything is happening during a specific day, I will have an update for 5:00 p.m., which will usually hit the page around 6:00 – 7:00 p.m. For those who follow me regular, you know the drill…if we have a serious threat, I’m here. This schedule will be strictly followed, for both family time, and to avoid exhaustion.
IN THE TROPICS:
An area of disturbed weather is noted over the Yucatan Peninsula associated with outflow from the EPAC disturbance near central America. The main focus of energy is in the EPAC at the moment, however a very slow direction noted in the NHC Surface analysis suggest a quasi-stationary motion toward the peninsula at the moment. Satellite loop imagery suggests the possibility of a secondary circulation, albeit ill defined, may be over the peninsula near north of Guatemala.
Currently, the area in the Caribbean is undergoing wind shear. However, we have some consistency, albeit not as good as I prefer, but the GFS is still indicating some type of weak tropical development in about 7-10 days in the SW Caribbean, or extreme southern BOC. Th wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates by 180 hours from 06Z today, an upper level anticyclone may begin to drift north over the peninsula, and wind shear relaxing over that exact area. I will continue to monitor the wind shear tendency for improving upper level conditions. The ERSL 500 mb anomaly mean departure still indicates lowering pressures in the area around the 5-6 of June, with upward motion of the MJO remaining in place, but departing soon after. Should a system come to fruition, this will be the second season in a row where the GFS has indicated, albeit on and off, cyclogenesis of at least 2 weeks out in the forecast period.
Based on analysis of the GFS output, and some other parameters, if development does occur, I do not expect anything strong, as this may even have a hard time reaching depression status if something does occur. At any rate, looks as if it could be s soggy time along the west coast of Florida sometime next week.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7-10 days.