SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…MAY 28, 2013…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS NEWD INTO THE LWR GRT LKS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

TROPICAL ATLANTIC SYNOPSIS:

First, let me stress to hours of operation for this hurricane season.  Due to family time and life commitments, these hours WILL BE STRICTLY ADHERED TO, and may need to be modified due to unforeseen circumstances.  Should there be a day I am not here, you can bet something is probably happening on my plate at home.  The hours of operation are as follows:

Monday – Friday: 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m.
Sat –  Sun:  As required

Once I have a synopsis FULLY posted (i.e., Here, client emails, etc.)  I will field any questions between 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 Noon, and again from 2:00 – 4:00 p.m.  Should we have an threatening system, whether to the Islands of the Caribbean, or more so the U.S  Coastline, hours will be modified.  If anything is happening during a specific day, I will have an update for 5:00 p.m., which will usually hit the page around 6:00 – 7:00 p.m.  For those who follow me regular, you know the drill…if we have a serious threat, I’m here.  This schedule will be strictly followed, for both family time, and to avoid exhaustion.

IN THE TROPICS:

An area of disturbed weather is noted over the Yucatan Peninsula associated with outflow from the EPAC disturbance near central America.  The main focus of energy is in the EPAC at the moment, however a very slow direction noted in the NHC Surface analysis suggest a quasi-stationary motion toward the peninsula at the moment.  Satellite loop imagery suggests the possibility of a secondary circulation, albeit ill defined, may be over the peninsula near north of Guatemala.

WESTERN ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Currently, the area in the Caribbean is undergoing wind shear.  However, we have some consistency, albeit not as good as I prefer, but the GFS is still indicating some type of weak tropical development in about 7-10 days in the SW Caribbean, or extreme southern BOC.  Th wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates by 180 hours from 06Z today, an upper level anticyclone may begin to drift north over the peninsula, and wind shear relaxing over that exact area.  I will continue to monitor the wind shear tendency for improving upper level conditions.  The ERSL 500 mb anomaly mean departure still indicates lowering pressures in the area around the 5-6 of June, with upward motion of the MJO remaining in place, but departing soon after.  Should a system come to fruition, this will be the second season in a row where the GFS has indicated, albeit on and off, cyclogenesis of at least 2 weeks out in the forecast period.

GFS 

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

ESRL 500 MB MEAN ANOMALY DEPARTURE

Based on analysis of the GFS output, and some other parameters, if development does occur, I do not expect anything strong, as this may even have a hard time reaching depression status if something does occur. At any rate, looks as if it could be s soggy time along the west coast of Florida sometime next week.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7-10 days.

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…MAY 28, 2013…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks for the update Storm, Family does come first.. But on another note am I going to get any nasty wx out of this system? I will be sailing the keys from 3 – 10 June?

    Thanks

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      Mike, could be some rain, but it should pull away to the NW or NNW over the next 4-5 days

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm. Family. Comes first. But we all know. If something. Out. There you will be on it. A question what do you think areas will be affected. This hurricane. Season?

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      Right now, I think it’s going to be a “spray” type deal, until we get an established steering pattern lat July or beginning Aug.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I echo Dellamom and LT…you do so much to help us. Family time is so precious…as I’m finding out. I’m curious if the EPAC system will find its way into the GOMEX.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks so much Storm, Family comes first. You are such a giving and caring person, you take so much time to , “look out for us” and the public in general, I know we all here appreciate what you do. Any time you can give us is so greatly appreciated.

  5. dellamom says:

    Thanks Storm. We all want you to take care of yourself and your family above all. Good Lord, half the country is yellow! That’s lots of bad weather. Not good for river flooding/traffic situations when you add in snow melt and the recent bad weather and heavy rains over the same areas. Just because the rain/snow doesn’t fall ON a place doesn’t mean it doesn’t affect the place.

  6. teammc01 says:

    Thank you, StormW

  7. Ron says:

    Thanks Storm! My family and I are leaving for Puerto Rico on June 6th. What, if any, impact do you see this potential disturbed weather having on that area?

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