SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / TROPICAL BRIEFING…MAY 22, 2013…ISSUED 11:25 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Well, it appears yesterday’s forecast was bust.  You’ve heard me mention GIGO (Garbage in, Garbage out) as far as model information goes.  Evidently this is what appears to have happened, as analysis of parameters were pretty much in agreement with the models analyzed, and with information contained in the SPC outlook yesterday.  Specific targeting showed a threat for strong tornadoes, isolated, for yesterday as outlined.

The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of the outlook, substantial destabilization is expect to occur over the area, as skies are clear at the moment, which will allow for daytime surface heating.  Based on the 12Z soundings from around the area, the atmosphere is pretty stable at the moment.  Analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather software, the SWEAT index indicates the severity of storms should be limited, however a tornado or two cannot be ruled out from any rotating supercell structures.  Please refer to the SPC home page (linked in map) for updated information on Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, and updates to the outlook.

TROPICAL BRIEFING:

The only model to go on at the moment is the GFS, as the other Global models do not extend out 2 weeks.  The GFS has now been more consistent in developing a weak tropical system in the SW Caribbean around the June 3-5 time period.  Albeit I am going to wait until this solution begins to show up on other models around the 6-10 day time period, the GFS has appeared to have some good consistency now.  Should this trend continue, this solution may not be able to be completely ruled out, as the ESRL 500 mb Mean Anomaly maps for the period, do tend to indicate a lowering of pressures in the SW Caribbean, albeit most of the falls are confined to the EPAC.  The setup of ridging over the eastern U.S., and lowering pressures south, are indicative of a classic situational development setup.

GFS

ESRL 500 MB MEAN ANOMALY

Another item which may be of concern is, the current run of the GFS wind shear forecast map indicates an upper level anticyclone developing in the EPAC in approximately 144-150 hours, and progressing northward over Central America, which would tend to suggest further progression to the SW Caribbean.  This will all be monitored over the next 5-7 days for consistency.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Elsewhere, the most recent Operational SST Anomaly map suggests more indications this season may very well be above normal activity.  The following factors are noted in analysis of this map:

1.)  SST Anomalies are running 2.0 – 2.5 C above average in the MDR.

2.)  Cooler anomalies continue to maintain and spread over Nino regions 3 and 3.4

3.) The Atlantic Ocean Tripole is well established.

4.)  The IOD (Indian Ocean DiPole) is negative.  If this signal remains, it has the tendency to not disrupt the African Monsoonal Circulation off West Africa.

5.)  The Gulf of Guinea has been cooling, and is almost at 100% cooler anomalies.  This allows for the ITCZ/Monsoon trof to migrate northward, which begins to bring rainfall into the western Sahel region of Africa.

6.)  The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) has continued to warm, and is currently displaying anomalies similar to June of 2004.

OPERATIONAL SST ANOMALY MAP

The majority of Dynamic Model Ensembles indicate the presence of the MJO in Octant 1 by the end of this month, through the fourth of June.

MJO INDEX FORECAST

I will continue to monitor this, and will begin issuance of the Tropical Weather synopsis June 01.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / TROPICAL BRIEFING…MAY 22, 2013…ISSUED 11:25 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    Storm, you are way too hard on yourself. I have said before, I’d rather know what MIGHT be coming to get me than be unprepared for what does. And you are the best I’ve come across at letting us know what to expect. But we are all well aware that meteorology is not an exact science, partly because we have more to learn, and partly because of the plethora of variables that go into it. That is why they are called weather predictions, not weather certainties. You possess what I’ve only seen once before, an ability to look at what everyone else is looking at and see beyond what they see. Sometimes it doesn’t pan out, but more than not you are the voice in the wilderness behind whom the others follow. But that’s just me. Keep letting me know what might happen. P.S.: I hope your sons are well.

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      Thank you, dellamom, and all! It’s just frustrating as a Met., when you look at all the information, and put your trust in it from experience. However, it also helps if ya have the time to sit at the computer all day, and do an hour by hour analysis to see what’s going on in real time.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…I echo LT!! Thanks!! Yeah…LT you got some good ones yesterday!!

    • originallt says:

      Hi Monty, those powerful storms you refered to yesterday actually passed by to my North by 70 miles or so, but you are right, they were strong.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm so much for your detailed analysis, I know this takes a lot of time. As far as yesterdays forecast going “bust”, I really wouldn’t say that, there were powerful T.Storms around, just not any tornadoes. Don’t be so hard on yourself. I think we’re all glad no tornadoes ‘ “spun-up”!

  4. teammc01 says:

    Thank you, StormW

  5. flbluetarp says:

    Oh No! If anything is like 2004 in FL!

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