SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…SEVERE WEATHER EVENT…PDS SYNOPSIS…MAY 20, 2013…ISSUED 5:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

Good evening!

The SPC has indicated a MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX…CENTRAL/ERN OK…EXTREME SERN KS…SRN MO…AND NWRN AR…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION…

…SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS…

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OUTLOOK BASED ON CURRENT BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND RECENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. 


Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Based on Mesoanalysis current soundings, and analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather software, more tornadic activity is expected tonight, with some tornadoes being strong and long tracked.  The following indicates based on F5 Data, where to expect the best possibility of tornadoes, and isolated strong tornadoes.  Residents within the area are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and Local NWS Office Statements, and be prepared to take PROPER COVER in the event of a Tornado Warning.  This is a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation)

usastatescapsMAY 20 TOR

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR AREA

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…SEVERE WEATHER EVENT…PDS SYNOPSIS…MAY 20, 2013…ISSUED 5:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. DKMac says:

    91 confirmed deaths so far in Moore, OK. Number of children killed at the elementary school that was destroyed is still unconfirmed. Horrible!!! http://kfor.com/2013/05/20/at-least-37-killed-in-moore-tornado/

  2. originallt says:

    Yeah Monty, I think someone said it probably was an F4–but that will be officially determined in a few days, so sad.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Moore, OK just got clobbered.

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