SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 19, 2013…ISSUED 3:45 P.M. EDT..PHFC

ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ON TAP FOR TODAY

Good afternoon!

The SPC has indicated a MODERATE risk of SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT…SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…

…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK


Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. 

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS MAP

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING MAP…(CLICK ON YOUR AREA FOR TORNADO WARNINGS AND UPDATES)

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Analysis of soundings from around the moderate risk area, and analysis of forecast information from F5 Data Severe Weather software, albeit out of 4 different models, 4 different solutions, the consensus seems to be, the highest probability of a Severe Weather Event, and possible isolated, long lived, strong tornadoes, is outlined in the following map, for current time through early evening (8-9 p.m. EDT).  Please refer to the maps above, and monitor this situation closely.

usastatescaps19th severe

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAY 19, 2013…ISSUED 3:45 P.M. EDT..PHFC

  1. teammc01 says:

    It’s time to stop lurking. My thoughts and pray to those effected by the tornado yesterday.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. My friend Laura’s mom lives in Elgin, NE. They had a Tornado Warning earlier…no reports of any damage…not so lucky for those poor people in Oklahoma…my prayers are with them.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I’ve been having light rain here almost all day here in Stamford CT., even though for much of the time it is not shown on radar. Could be coming from very low-base clouds that don’t even show up on radar.–That is the precip. starts out from a very low altitude and is below radar range.

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