SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FORECAST…MAY 18, 2013…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC…REQUEST WIDEST DISSEMINATION

ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FORECAST BY THE SPC

Good afternoon!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEB…WESTERN KS…AND WESTERN OK…

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST…

…ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/KS/OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK


Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. 

Soundings from around the moderate risk area indicated MLCAPE values ranging between 1800+ j/kg to 3600+ j/kg.  Forecast SBCAPE values were ranging between 3800 – 5000 J/kg.  This is an exceptional amount of Convective Available Potential Energy to be seen at 12Z.  Lifted Indices were showing a strong amount of lift as well.  Noted however, was a capping inversion at lower levels.  However, daytime heating appears to be forecast to overcome the cap.  With values and parameters indicated by SPC, and analysis of F5 Data Severe Weather Software, depending on where the cap breaks, and what time of day, the situation could get ugly.  Based on this, and to err on the side of safety, I am issuing a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) statement at this time, should these parameters hold and come to fruition.  With the amount of lift and energy, VERY LARGE HAIL will most likely be encountered.  Strong tornadoes of EF2 – EF5 cannot be ruled out over the entire moderate risk area.

Based on analysis of the F5 Data Severe Weather software, 3 models were analyzed, and a pretty close mean consensus indicates the greatest probability for significant severe weather to occur within the RED outlined areas, and strong tornadic activity within the PINK hatched areas.  Albeit the SPC Outlook map doesn’t indicate severe for TX, all 3 models analyzed placed a risk over the area of TX outlined.  Whether this comes to fruition remains to be seen.

usastatescapsSEVERE EVENT

Residents in the risk area, both MODERATE and SLIGHT, should closely monitor this situation today and tonight, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS office statements and warnings.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES MAP

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS MAP

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS MAP…CLICK ON YOUR AREA

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP…INTERACTIVE

Please stay safe, and have a blessed Saturday!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FORECAST…MAY 18, 2013…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC…REQUEST WIDEST DISSEMINATION

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm one of the. Well known hurricane. Forecasters said this is a east coast year for hurricanes

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Good point LT!! Just what the hell is a “slight risk” anyway? Either you have a risk or you don’t. My best friends mom lives in Elgin, NE. OK Laura…tell your mom to only be slightly alert for strong to violent long track Tornadoes!! Good one Storm and LT!!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks as always Storm. Just an opinion of mine, I don’t like the designation, “slight risk”. I feel it is too “soft” a warning or alert if you will. Moderate is OK, but “slight” connotates to me anyway, not much of a chance of anything significant. I think people under the “slight risk” may be lulled into a false sense of security. I feel the word “lower” or ” Lower risk”, might be better suited. –Just my opinion.

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