ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…MAY 15, 2013…ISSUED 7:15 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Posted on May 15, 2013 by palmharborforecastcenter

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: SLIGHT
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION PROBABILITY: NONE

Good evening!

Our first Tropical Wave was initialized on the 12Z Surface Analysis Map from the NHC.

The wave is currently located at approximately 7N;38W.  The wave is moving toward the west at about 10-15 mph.

ir2-lTROPICAL

CENTRAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP

Wind shear across the basin is still rather brisk, and on the order of 20-30 knots, based on analysis of the shear map from CIMSS.  The Current GFS Wind Shear forecast indicates shear to remain at non conducive levels over the next 72-96 hours.  Based on these parameters, Tropical development is not expected form this wave.

WIND SHEAR AND WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Analysis of Global Models indicate an on/off situation, with the latest run of the GFS and GGEM indicate a surface low off the Eastern Seaboard in about 10-14 days.  Earlier, one of the models suggested a storm crossing from the EPAC toward the SW Caribbean in  about 12-14 days.  I will keep tabs on that as time gets closer.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Formation is not expected through the next 96 hours.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…MAY 15, 2013…ISSUED 7:15 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:
    May 16, 2013 at 10:39 am

    But it’s not June! (Just kidding!) Looks like you are on target as usual, Storm. As unusual as our weather has been this year, colder and wetter, I am glad the northshore house is complete enough to live in … we just need lights, fans, a fenced dog-yard and window coverings. If we do get anything impressive here in Southeast Louisiana, I expect we will have a full house. God bless you Storm for keeping us informed.

    Reply
  2. originallt says:
    May 16, 2013 at 12:10 am

    Thank you Storm, again.

    Reply
  3. Monty says:
    May 15, 2013 at 10:38 pm

    Thanks Storm. What do you think of the possibility of TS Alvin?

    Reply
    • palmharborforecastcenter says:
      May 15, 2013 at 10:47 pm

      Looks like it may have a good chance…I haven;t analyzed anything out that way, so I’m just taking a stab at it

      Reply

Leave a reply to palmharborforecastcenter Cancel reply