SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…MAY 11, 2013…ISSUED 9:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening!

An area of disturbed weather, associated with an upper and mid level trof is located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of the current wind shear map from CIMSS, and satellite loop imagery, indicates deep layer shear is around 30 knots directly over the area, and the low is being sheared as noted by upper level clouds being blown off toward the E and ENE.  A low level circulation can be noted west of the convection.

However, analysis of the wind shear from 850 mb – 500 mb indicates shear up through the mid layers may be conducive for a shallow system, not unlike some of the systems we saw develop over the past couple of seasons with the same setup.  However, based on climatology, and continued shearing in the upper layers, this will most likely not come to fruition.  Albeit, there may be a slim possibility if convection pulses, and dry air can be overcome…we could see a brief run of this trying to go sub-tropical.  Current Cyclone Phase Evolution map solutions from the CMC, UKMET, and NAVGEM indicate this to be a shallow warm core system

CURRENT MID LEVEL SHEAR AND FORECAST MID LEVEL SHEAR

Based on the recent run of the Steering Layers forecast maps, this area may remain stationary over the next 12 hours, and begin to take off toward the NNE or NE.

I will be monitoring the area for any changes over the remainder of the weekend.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS…MAY 11, 2013…ISSUED 9:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm have a good day still praying for your son.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It’s looking like things are shaping up just like you said. As LT said….have a restful day my friend!!

  3. Your perspicacity (I had to look that one up!) leads us to believe that we are in the best of hands this season coming up! AS ALWAYS! – RSS

  4. originallt says:

    Thasnks Storm. Hope you have a wonderful Sunday and much needed day of rest.

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