An area of disturbed weather, associated with an upper and mid level trof is located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.
Analysis of the current wind shear map from CIMSS, and satellite loop imagery, indicates deep layer shear is around 30 knots directly over the area, and the low is being sheared as noted by upper level clouds being blown off toward the E and ENE. A low level circulation can be noted west of the convection.
However, analysis of the wind shear from 850 mb – 500 mb indicates shear up through the mid layers may be conducive for a shallow system, not unlike some of the systems we saw develop over the past couple of seasons with the same setup. However, based on climatology, and continued shearing in the upper layers, this will most likely not come to fruition. Albeit, there may be a slim possibility if convection pulses, and dry air can be overcome…we could see a brief run of this trying to go sub-tropical. Current Cyclone Phase Evolution map solutions from the CMC, UKMET, and NAVGEM indicate this to be a shallow warm core system
Based on the recent run of the Steering Layers forecast maps, this area may remain stationary over the next 12 hours, and begin to take off toward the NNE or NE.
I will be monitoring the area for any changes over the remainder of the weekend.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)