SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / A LITTLE ON THE TROPICS…POSTED MAY 08, 2013…ISSUED 5:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good afternoon.

Late this afternoon…however, as I stated prior, I will be on and off, making short posts, as I am getting into analyzing things for the upcoming hurricane season.  Putting a lot of info together to look at, and once I have something to post that will explain a lot…I will.  In the meantime, for severe weather, please refer to the short posts, or the following site:

SPC WEBSITE
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from SERN CO…WRN AND CNTRL KS…WRN AND CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX…

…ERN CO…WRN THROUGH CNTRL KS…WRN AND CNTRL OK AND NWRN TX…


SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

As far as the tropics are concerned, forecast conditions tend to indicate conditions favorable for a busy hurricane season.  There will be fluctuations in the Atlantic SST over the next 3 weeks, however indications are for a warmer MDR than last year.   Various parameters have changed from last season, which is why the indication has been more chance of u.s. landfalls.  Once again, as soon as I’m able to have time to analyze more things thoroughly, I will post my take, and also have updated expected storm totals.  In the meantime, a good colleague, Levi Cowan, has made an outstanding video and explanation of what some of us in the meteorological realm are looking at.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LjjUA3WB0bU

Please visit Levi’s site…http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Have a great evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / A LITTLE ON THE TROPICS…POSTED MAY 08, 2013…ISSUED 5:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I, we all really appreciate the time you are taking to keep us up-dated with the best data and forecasts, this Hurricane season.. –Monty, are you moving again? Where is IAH?

    • Monty says:

      Could be LT. It depends on how…yeah…the divorce goes.

      • originallt says:

        Sorry about the “divorce” thing. My son went through one , only a year and a half after he got married.

        • Monty says:

          Yeah LT…this was 23 years…21 of which were completely miserable…won’t bore you with the details. One day I will visit New York and maybe we can meet. I can tell you things that will blow your mind. God Bless Buddy.

    • Monty says:

      Sorry buddy…IAH is Houston, Texas

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It’s great to have you out there!! I might be moving to IAH so your tropical forecasts would all the more personal. Thank for Levi’s site and video. Right now in DEN…it’s raining and 47F…at least it’s rain!!

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