SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / STATE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SYNOPSIS…MAY 06, 2013…ISSUED 3:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Not too much going on today…The SPC doesn’t show any severe weather until Wednesday.

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

The Tropics are quite.  SST anomalies continue to warm slightly off the African Coast and in most of the MDR, while anomalies continue to slowly cool in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific.

CURRENT OPERATIONAL SST ANOMALY MAP


UNISYS SST ANOMALY MAP

WASHINGTON STATE EDU ANOMALY LOOP

Wind shear has recently been within, or below climatology in the three basins.

GOMEX

The current NAO forecast is calling for the NAO to remain positive until after mid month.  This may allow for some cooling to occur in the Atlantic MDR, however, I expect once the NAO shifts downward, these temps will rebound.

NAO FORECAST CHART

Based on these factors, it appears that a busy season is in fact ahead of us, especially if the sst anomaly trend continues.  I am going to be working out some new storm totals, and will post them tomorrow.  Best estimation of any activity, should the MJO behave in a normal way, could be the week of 3 June, or the week after, being that the MJO “generally’ takes about 40 days to complete a trip.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK / STATE OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SYNOPSIS…MAY 06, 2013…ISSUED 3:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Computers down….looks like a busy season ahead….could be in IAH before the end of it.

  2. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks Storm looking forward to your thoughts. Are you seeing anything in the steering patterns that would keep the storms away from the US?

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