SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…APR. 19, 2010… ISSUED 12:00 NOON EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Analysis of this early mornings upper air data / Skew-T charts, indications are that a slight inversion is existent over the northern portion of the risk area, from VA., northward.  Overall soundings indicate that lapse rates were somewhat weak this morning, however that could change with any significant daytime heating.  The main threat appears to be damaging wind.  However, the cap is expected to break, but only leading to weak lapse rates.  But, given the nature of the forecast shear and flow, the main storm characteristics may be in the form of LEWPS, and low topped supercells which could produce some isolated tornadoes.

Late afternoon / early evening, the severe risk should become more prominent from eastern GA., up through the Chesapeake Bay.

Residents in the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements.  Please visit my site often for current updates.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…APR. 19, 2010… ISSUED 12:00 NOON EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Safe trip Monty.

  2. DKMac says:

    Thanks Storm. Record low temp of 37F here in Covington, LA this morning! It’s been a wild April so far. Any recommendations on a good, easy to set-up weather radio?

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Alerting friends in CHS. Headed to IAH in the A.M.

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