Good day everyone!
The SPC has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC…
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
Analysis of this early mornings upper air data / Skew-T charts, indications are that a slight inversion is existent over the northern portion of the risk area, from VA., northward. Overall soundings indicate that lapse rates were somewhat weak this morning, however that could change with any significant daytime heating. The main threat appears to be damaging wind. However, the cap is expected to break, but only leading to weak lapse rates. But, given the nature of the forecast shear and flow, the main storm characteristics may be in the form of LEWPS, and low topped supercells which could produce some isolated tornadoes.
Late afternoon / early evening, the severe risk should become more prominent from eastern GA., up through the Chesapeake Bay.
Residents in the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements. Please visit my site often for current updates.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)