URGENT: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT… PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 18, 2013…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EDT…PHFC

4:10 P.M. EDT….SEVERE WEATHER UPDATE…THE SPC HAS REDUCED THE SEVERE RISK TO SLIGHT.  However, there is still a very likely chance of some intense tornadoes still from mid section to the south.

SPC DAY 1 UPDATED CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK and TORNADO PROB.

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a MODERATE risk of Severe Thunderstorms today INTO THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MI…MUCH OF IND…CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IL…SOUTHEAST MO…WESTERN KY…WESTERN TN…EASTERN AR…AND NORTHERN MS…

There is a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM EAST TX NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MS AND OH VALLEYS…

SPC PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY

SPC DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

SPC HAIL PROBABILITY

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Based on information from the SPC Convective Outlook, and the current PWO, and analysis of F5 DATA Severe Weather software, parameters are trending toward favorable conditions for a significant severe event, with mainly damaging thunderstorm winds, and tornadoes, mainly within the MODERATE RISK area.  Based on the information, and based on the side of safety, I am classifying this as a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation).  A PDS TORNADO WATCH was issued a short time ago for a portion of IN, IL., OH., and MI.

PDS TORNADO WATCH

As daytime heating continues, the atmosphere may become more conducive for strong tornado development.  I am basing my reasoning on Tornado and Wind activity, being that the hail risk is relatively low, which based on thermodynamics analyzed, would tend to lend credence to tornadic activity.  The outlined area based on this, will most likely be susceptible to strong tornadoes (EF2+), with the current targeted areas in pink.  As the day goes on however, this could change as far as location, but current parameters indicate these areas may be at the higher risk.

tornadoprob sig
Residents in the risk area are urged to read the Public Severe Weather Outlook, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS office Statements, and visit this site often today for updated information by clicking on the maps provided.

Stay safe, and have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Resid

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to URGENT: SEVERE WEATHER THREAT… PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION…FORECAST SYNOPSIS…APR. 18, 2013…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m with LT…it looks like they are going to get their money’s worth!! I leave for IAH in two days. I was hoping to catch a couple of Tornadoes…not looking good.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, looks pretty rough in the Mississippi and Ohio River Vally’s for today and tonight!

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