SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…APR. 16, 2013…ISSUED 11:10 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OH/TN VALLEYS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROB

Based on information contained in the outlook, ample sunshine will lead to sufficient daytime heating, to destabilize the atmosphere and overcome the cap within portions of the risk area.  Albeit, the tornado probability is relatively low, various indices and parameters, including the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) index indicates the probability of isolated tornadoes into evening.  The STP maps here and Craven Brooks Index maps are courtesy of Earl Barker.  An STP of greater than 1 indicates a greater potential for tornadic activity, and a Craven Brooks value of 45,000> indicates a greater chance of widespread sever weather.

CENTRAL_ETA212_ATMOS_STP_09HR

CENTRAL_MESO-ETA212_ATMOS_STP_12HR

CENTRAL_RUC236_ATMOS_STP_09HR

CENTRAL_RUC236_ATMOS_SIGSVR_06HR

CENTRAL_RUC236_ATMOS_SIGSVR_09HR

Residents should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, NWS statements, and the maps below for updates.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…APR. 16, 2013…ISSUED 11:10 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, “enjoy” your snow Monty! I hear you are getting some more today.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. The threat looks close enough to MAF and SJT to send this out. Thanks as always!! Our January weather continues…here’s some totals from yesterdays storm…surprisingly…only 25 canceled flights at KDEN.

    0801 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 NNW FEDERAL HEIGHTS 39.88N 105.03W
    04/16/2013 M11.0 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0753 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 NE ESTES PARK 40.38N 105.51W
    04/16/2013 M27.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0750 AM SNOW 2 S STERLING 40.62N 103.22W
    04/16/2013 M3.0 INCH LOGAN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0737 AM HEAVY SNOW 4 S FORT COLLINS 40.50N 105.07W
    04/16/2013 M11.8 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0737 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 W CONIFER 39.51N 105.36W
    04/16/2013 M10.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0735 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 N BAILEY 39.45N 105.46W
    04/16/2013 M8.5 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0732 AM HEAVY SNOW BRIGHTON 39.99N 104.79W
    04/16/2013 M9.0 INCH ADAMS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0730 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 ESE TINY TOWN 39.58N 105.16W
    04/16/2013 M9.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0725 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SW WESTMINSTER 39.87N 105.07W
    04/16/2013 M17.2 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0722 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 NE FORT COLLINS 40.58N 105.04W
    04/16/2013 M17.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0714 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SE WINDSOR 40.47N 104.89W
    04/16/2013 M12.5 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0711 AM HEAVY SNOW ILIFF 40.76N 103.07W
    04/16/2013 E12.0 INCH LOGAN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0709 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 N LONGMONT 40.20N 105.11W
    04/16/2013 M10.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0705 AM HEAVY SNOW 8 NW FOUR CORNERS 40.97N 106.00W
    04/16/2013 M8.5 INCH LARIMER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

    0700 AM HEAVY SNOW DILLON 39.62N 106.04W
    04/16/2013 M8.5 INCH SUMMIT CO CO-OP OBSERVER

    0700 AM HEAVY SNOW WELLINGTON 40.70N 105.00W
    04/16/2013 M14.7 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0655 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 W LOVELAND 40.42N 105.12W
    04/16/2013 M14.5 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0648 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 SE DENVER 39.69N 104.93W
    04/16/2013 M9.5 INCH DENVER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0630 AM HEAVY SNOW CROOK 40.86N 102.80W
    04/16/2013 M8.0 INCH LOGAN CO CO-OP OBSERVER

    0630 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 NNE PURCELL 40.72N 104.52W
    04/16/2013 M11.0 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0630 AM HEAVY SNOW 21 N NEW RAYMER 40.91N 103.83W
    04/16/2013 M9.0 INCH WELD CO CO-OP OBSERVER

    0628 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 W LITTLETON 39.59N 105.05W
    04/16/2013 M7.3 INCH ARAPAHOE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0614 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 SE FORT COLLINS 40.55N 105.05W
    04/16/2013 M12.5 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

    0611 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 SSW BOULDER 39.99N 105.27W
    04/16/2013 M14.9 INCH BOULDER CO NWS EMPLOYEE

    DAVID SKAGGS RESEARCH CENTER NOAA

    0609 AM HEAVY SNOW NIWOT 40.10N 105.16W
    04/16/2013 M12.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

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