Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of EASTERN OK…NORTHERN AR…AND SOUTHERN MO…
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROB.
12Z soundings from around the risk area, and forecast soundings from F5 Data Severe weather software were not much help in analysis this morning. The models that were run, have the SWEAT index, and Craven Brooks Index, separated from the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter). Relying on information from the SPC SREF model, the greatest threat for Severe Thunderstorms appears to be with in the risk are, and possibly somewhat south. The red outline on the following SPC DAY 1 map indicates information regarding where there could be a 90% chance for STP of 1 to 3.
Residents within the risk area, and the outline shown, should pay close attention to the weather, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements as issued. Please follow the posted maps as they are linked, and check back often, as they update with real time information.
SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY
NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING MAP
Severe weather threats are on tap for tomorrow and Wednesday. As of this report, the SPC has a MODERATE risk issued for Wednesday, and both of these days will be addressed as they become the Day 1 Outlook.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)