SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…APR. 14, 2013…ISSUED 2:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of EASTERN OK…NORTHERN AR…AND SOUTHERN MO…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROB.

SPC DAY 1 WIND PROB.

SPC DAY 1 HAIL PROB

12Z soundings from around the risk area, and forecast soundings from F5 Data Severe weather software were not much help in analysis this morning.  The models that were run, have the SWEAT index, and Craven Brooks Index, separated from the STP (Significant Tornado Parameter).  Relying on information from the SPC SREF model, the greatest threat for Severe Thunderstorms appears to be with in the risk are, and possibly somewhat south.  The red outline on the following SPC DAY 1 map indicates information regarding where there could be a 90% chance for STP of 1 to 3.

day1otlk_1300

Residents within the risk area, and the outline shown, should pay close attention to the weather, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements as issued.  Please follow the posted maps as they are linked, and check back often, as they update with real time information.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING MAP

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Severe weather threats are on tap for tomorrow and Wednesday.  As of this report, the SPC has a MODERATE risk issued for Wednesday, and both of these days will be addressed as they become the Day 1 Outlook.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…APR. 14, 2013…ISSUED 2:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. We seem to be stuck in a January pattern for the better part of the week. I hope you didn’t receive any damage from the weekend Severe Wx in the TPA area!! Everyone please stay safe that is in the risk area.

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