SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…APR. 11, 2013…ISSUED 11:15 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicate a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS…CAROLINAS…AND PARTS OF SRN VA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY OUTLOOK

 SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING MAP

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Based on analysis this morning, the greatest chance for the severe threat this morning should be over LA, extending into lower and mid MS.  As the day evolves  I expect this to continue east to ENE, affecting AL. late this afternoon.

Looking at forecast sounding parameters from F5 Data severe wx software  all of the models seem to have handled information from this mornings upper air soundings, pretty poorly.  Based on what sense could be made from the model output, I believe the best chance of severe weather from NOON EDT, to late afternoon should occur in the outlined area, and extending east later this evening.  Greatest tornado threat appears to be in the pink areas, albeit based on lower overall severe weather index parameters, I am not anticipating near the severity as dealt with yesterday.
SEVERE APR. 11

Residents in and near the risk area, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio  and local NWS office Statements for  updates and warnings.

The maps above are linked, and will provide current information by clicking on them.

Stay Safe!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…APR. 11, 2013…ISSUED 11:15 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’ll alert the gang in MSY and CHS. In Colorado…we have gone from April to January well into next week.

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