Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center has indicate a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms from THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF STATES INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS…CAROLINAS…AND PARTS OF SRN VA…
INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
Based on analysis this morning, the greatest chance for the severe threat this morning should be over LA, extending into lower and mid MS. As the day evolves I expect this to continue east to ENE, affecting AL. late this afternoon.
Looking at forecast sounding parameters from F5 Data severe wx software all of the models seem to have handled information from this mornings upper air soundings, pretty poorly. Based on what sense could be made from the model output, I believe the best chance of severe weather from NOON EDT, to late afternoon should occur in the outlined area, and extending east later this evening. Greatest tornado threat appears to be in the pink areas, albeit based on lower overall severe weather index parameters, I am not anticipating near the severity as dealt with yesterday.
Residents in and near the risk area, should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local NWS office Statements for updates and warnings.
The maps above are linked, and will provide current information by clicking on them.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)