Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across THE CENTRAL PLAINS…
Information in the outlook, and analysis of soundings from around the area, indicate a capping inversion, from on average at the 880-890 mb level, down to 800 mb. Given the current cap, thunderstorm activity should be limited to elevated storms, to where the main threat would be hail, which would be initiating most likely around noon, to around late afternoon. Current analysis of F5 Data severe wx software, indicates a good probability from the NAVGEM, NAM-WRF, and GFS that a potential for stronger cells, which may be surface based, could produce some tornadoes, some strong. This will depend whether or not the cap can be broken later this afternoon, into early evening, and will depend on daytime heating for this. Should this occur, the greatest threat for tornadic activity appears to hinge around the 8:00 P.M. to 11:00 P.M. EDT window. SWEAT Index Values of 400-475 indicates a better probability of tornadoes within that time, and EHI values of anywhere from 2-5 indicates some tornadoes, if any could be strong. Given the information on this from the software, I believe the greatest chance for occurrence is within the circled areas:
Residents within the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements for watch and warning updates. Again, please use the following maps as well.
NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY
INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)