SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…APR 08, 2013…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EDT…PHFC…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms across THE CENTRAL PLAINS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

SPC DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

SPC HAIL PROBABILITY

Information in the outlook, and analysis of soundings from around the area, indicate a capping inversion, from on average at the 880-890 mb level, down to 800 mb.  Given the current cap, thunderstorm activity should be limited to elevated storms, to where the main threat would be hail, which would be initiating most likely around noon, to around late afternoon.  Current analysis of F5 Data severe wx software, indicates a good probability from the NAVGEM, NAM-WRF, and GFS that a potential for stronger cells, which may be surface based, could produce some tornadoes, some strong.  This will depend whether or not the cap can be broken later this afternoon, into early evening, and will depend on daytime heating for this.  Should this occur, the greatest threat for tornadic activity appears to hinge around the 8:00 P.M. to 11:00 P.M. EDT window.  SWEAT Index Values of 400-475 indicates a better probability of tornadoes within that time, and EHI values of anywhere from 2-5 indicates some tornadoes, if any could be strong.  Given the information on this from the software, I believe the greatest chance for occurrence is within the circled areas:
STS APR 08

Residents within the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements for watch and warning updates.  Again, please use the following maps as well.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

 

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

 

 

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…APR 08, 2013…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EDT…PHFC…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, and thanks Monty, that radar is really filling in now, I bet you get 8-12″ !

  2. Thanks Storm. We’ve got a Major Winter Storm headed our way. Winter Storm/Blizzard Warnings out for the Denver Metro Area. I’ll post storm stats tomorrow. Have a great day everyone!!

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