Good evening all!
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms from SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN TX…
Based on analysis of the outlook, and severe indices from F5 Data severe wx software, the main threat again today and tonight appears to be hail. Once again though, given the chance of surface based storms, combined with CAPE values of around 1500-2000 j/kg, and other parameters a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out within the risk area. The most prominent areas that appeared in the software analysis of the GFS, RAP, and NAM-WRF, and where tornadic activity could occur, are outlined in the following map:
Residents in and around the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements for any watches or warnings. Also, the maps here are linked to the perspective site…just click for updated information. I expect most of the possible Severe weather to peak from now, until near 2:00 a.m. EDT.
On another note, albeit the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season does not officially start until June 01, this office will begin issuing its Tropical Weather Products on May 15, 2013…as given the formation of early systems over the past two years, it is best to already be analyzing the tropics and getting in some practice as well.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)