SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…APR. 02, 2013…ISSUED 5:05 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good evening all!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms from SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND SERN TX…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of the outlook, and severe indices from F5 Data severe wx software, the main threat again today and tonight appears to be hail.  Once again though, given the chance of surface based storms, combined with CAPE values of around 1500-2000 j/kg, and other parameters a couple of tornadoes cannot be ruled out within the risk area.  The most prominent areas that appeared in the software analysis of the GFS, RAP, and NAM-WRF, and where tornadic activity could occur, are outlined in the following map:
blank-map-of-the-united-states APR02

Residents in and around the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Statements for any watches or warnings.  Also, the maps here are linked to the perspective site…just click for updated information.  I expect most of the possible Severe weather to peak from now, until near 2:00 a.m. EDT.

SPC CURRENT WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS INTERACTIVE DOPPLER RADAR

On another note, albeit the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season does not officially start until June 01, this office will begin issuing its Tropical Weather Products on May 15, 2013…as given the formation of early systems over the past two years, it is best to already be analyzing the tropics and getting in some practice as well.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…APR. 02, 2013…ISSUED 5:05 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Gwen Varney says:

    Storm how are you???? Long time since my last visit . Wonderful to know you’re getting an early jump on our hurricane season . Looking forward to your “lessons” & guidance. Take care . God Bless .

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm for everything.

  3. Thanks Storm. Got it to the gang!!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s