SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…MAR. 23, 2013…ISSUED 12:45 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms through tonight from N/NE TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NE GULF COAST…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on information provided in the outlook, and analysis of upper air soundings from within the risk area, the main threat today appears to be hail, which may be large in some areas.  This is based on an inversion that lies from the surface to around the 750 mb level.  This will for the most part preclude any surface based storms.  Storms being elevated in nature, typically do not favor tornado development.  However, as the day progresses, thermodynamics are forecast to become more favorable for some tornadic activity with any cells that become surface based, mainly along and south of the warm front as low level shear will increase along with sufficient moisture increase.  Albeit the SPC has an outline of 5% over a small portion of the southern Gulf Coastal area, based on analysis of Severe Weather Parameters from F5 Data severe weather software, and to err on the side of caution, I am placing possible tornadic activity probs as outlined in the following map, with TX for current time through early afternoon, LA. for later this afternoon, and the FL. Panhandle and portion of AL. for late tonight into early morning.  Again, this is not definite, however most parameters are pointing to these areas at the moment.  Please use this information just to keep aware of the situation.
TOR.MAR 23

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC CURRENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS WARNING AND HAZARD DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk for tomorrow, and I will do an afternoon special synopsis on the area.

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…MAR. 23, 2013…ISSUED 12:45 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Just an update on the effects of Winter Storm Virgil…the NWS DEN/WFO knocked down all of the accumulation totals. However…I can tell you that in my area (Littleton, CO) we received almost a foot of new accumulation with another 3 inches expected tonight. KDEN had over 200 canceled flights with 10 to 12 inches of snow/blowing snow. Areas South and West of DEN received 12 to 18 inches of snow. Areas East of the city had Blizzard conditions with numerous road closures…anywhere from 6 to 15 inch accumulations. Sorry I couldn’t be more accurate. Stay safe back East as it looks like Virgil will affect all of you!! God Bless!!

    • originallt says:

      Thanks for the report Monty. I thought you moved to Denver, or is Littleton a part of Denver .–As for my area, the local Mets are all over the place as far as accumulations go, as little as an inch or two of slush, to over 10″! I’ll let you know what happens. Too bad StormW doesn’t work for our local NWS, he’d get it right!

      • I hear you buddy!! I’d give anything to have Storm running the DEN/WFO!! Yes…Littleton is a suburb of Denver…located 11 miles SW from Denver proper. Good luck up there…the Mets sound like they just flew in from Denver!!

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, –one of your circled areas is right where dellamom lives. Hope she will be OK. Still up by me they are very un-sure as to what, if any snow I get up here on Monday. I’ve heard anywhere from 0 to 12″ !!. I would bet closer to 3-5″ if it happens. There are indications that the low and it’s precipitation shield may be forced out to sea just South of us here in Sw CT.–Due in part to the fact that the low over the Canadian Maritimes may not depart as quickly as first thought. So if that hangs around, or even drifts a little Southwestwards, it could deflect that approaching system. We”l see! Thank you again Storm.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s