Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms through tonight from N/NE TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NE GULF COAST…
Based on information provided in the outlook, and analysis of upper air soundings from within the risk area, the main threat today appears to be hail, which may be large in some areas. This is based on an inversion that lies from the surface to around the 750 mb level. This will for the most part preclude any surface based storms. Storms being elevated in nature, typically do not favor tornado development. However, as the day progresses, thermodynamics are forecast to become more favorable for some tornadic activity with any cells that become surface based, mainly along and south of the warm front as low level shear will increase along with sufficient moisture increase. Albeit the SPC has an outline of 5% over a small portion of the southern Gulf Coastal area, based on analysis of Severe Weather Parameters from F5 Data severe weather software, and to err on the side of caution, I am placing possible tornadic activity probs as outlined in the following map, with TX for current time through early afternoon, LA. for later this afternoon, and the FL. Panhandle and portion of AL. for late tonight into early morning. Again, this is not definite, however most parameters are pointing to these areas at the moment. Please use this information just to keep aware of the situation.
The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk for tomorrow, and I will do an afternoon special synopsis on the area.
Have a blessed weekend!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)