SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…MAR. 22, 2013…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM E CENTRAL TX ACROSS NRN LA TO W CENTRAL MS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of the information in the outlook, and parameters analyzed through F5 Data severe wx software, a little more significant chance for severe weather and possible tornadoes exists.
…E TX…NRN LA…W CENTRAL MS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING…BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE SPREADING NWD INTO SE TX…WITH UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER TX COAST. MEANWHILE…STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD TX FROM THE W. THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE…MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 C/KM…AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BOOST AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE FROM E TX INTO NRN LA ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT.

Information analyzed on F5 Data indicates the best chance of severe weather, and tornadic activity, which could be strong/isolated tornadoes, is marked in orange for early this afternoon, and red, for late this afternoon/early evening.

severe.tor

Residents within the risk area should monitor this closely, and listen to NOAA Weather Radio and NWS Statements and warnings if issued.

Again, keep in mind, you can always keep track of live updated maps and statements by clicking any of the following maps, which are linked.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

The Storm Prediction Center indicates another SLIGHT risk of severe weather for tomorrow.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Stay safe, and have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER


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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SYNOPSIS…MAR. 22, 2013…ISSUED 11:00 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, and hi dellamom and Monty. My snow may come Sunday night into Monday morning as we have a “Nor’Easter brewing. I actually think it may be some of the same energy that is affecting dellamom and Monty. Good luck with your snow. Will be looking for your snow totals, thanks for posting them when you have them, I’ll post mine on Monday. Stay safe dellamom–even though you might be just outside that circle, you have to be alert(I know you know that all ready!)

  2. dellamom says:

    Thanks, Storm. I’ll be on the Northshore this weekend, just south of the 30% circle on Saturday. Thanks for the heads-up. Prayers to those to my north.

  3. Thanks Storm. It looks like my gangs in the clear. We could get 6 to 10 inches of snow South and East of DEN…along with a nice shot of Arctic air…yuck!! I’ll post acc. totals sometime tomorrow evening. Have a great day everyone!!

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