NORLUN SETUP / MORE COLD AIR OUTLOOK….MAR. 20, 2013…ISSUED 12:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day all!  Today marks the Vernal Equinox, or the first day of Spring!

Not really much change in the upcoming pattern.  Analysis of global models shows a couple of NORLUN trof setups during the next 5-7 days.

GFS

ECMWF

GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURE

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR 

Looks like we are in store for a couple more shots of cold air driving south, with the most southern shot occurring around the end of the month.  Hard to say right now, but the appearance of the model trend near the end of the run, seems to indicate the beginning of a spring warm up.

I have given some thought over the past couple of days, and unless we have a low that seems it may be a significant coastal storm, or e have the threat for severe weather, I may cut down on my posts, in order to do a little more self training on forecasting severe weather threats, and begin eyeing different factors for the upcoming hurricane season much closer.

Appreciate your understanding.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to NORLUN SETUP / MORE COLD AIR OUTLOOK….MAR. 20, 2013…ISSUED 12:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm rest do you think we here on the gulf coast be threaten this year by a hurricane?

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      Hard to say right now Greg…have to see where the A/B high sets up after July. Could be a threat like last year between June and July.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, and I echo what Dellamom and Monty said. You do what you have to, I know you will be very busy come Hurricane Season. We really need you then! Rest-up my friend.

  3. Thanks Storm. I echo Dellamom and hope LT deosn’t go through more hell. We’ve got another potential Winter Storm headed our way. GFS/Ensembles open the thing up and show a more progressive system…hope so. Thanks Storm and know anything you throw our way is highly appreciated!!!

  4. dellamom says:

    I looked up Norlun Trough and I sure hope LT and the rest of the folks up that way don’t get one. They’ve had their share and someone else’s this past year. God bless them.

    As to cutting back, that seems a very reasonable thing to do. During times of milder weather, you can better use the forecast time you usually devote to us in other areas that will ultimately benefit all of us. You are my go-to guy for Godzilla Weather, and I’d prefer you take what time you need to be able to let me know if Godzilla (aka Katrina and her siblings) is going to be coming to destroy New Orleans again!

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