The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms for PORTIONS LA/AR TO ERN KY AND CENTRAL GA…
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Information in the outlook suggest sufficient daytime heating should occur, which may allow for MUCAPE values to rise into the 1500-2000 j/kg by this afternoon, with the probability of increasing to 2000-2500 j/kg. This would be the highest energy potential we’ve seen so far. Analysis of various models this morning from F5 Data software indicates the most likelihood of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadic activity lies within the following outlined areas…severe thunderstorms in blue, possible tornadic in red:
Some indicators within the software suite indicate that severe to tornadic are lower probabilities however this will need to be watched closely as given the nature of the forecast thermodynamics, could support a brief, conditional chance for tornadoes to spin-up.
Residents under the risk area, especially in AL. should monitor this situation closely, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio. Please follow local NWS Statements and Warnings if issued. For GA. residents, this same activity should e moving almost due east, and affect your area by this evening.
I will try to monitor as closely today as possible, and posting what I can on FaceBook as far as updated watches and warnings. The Hazard map, radar, watches and Mesoscale maps are linked….just click on them.
Have a safe and blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)