SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…MAR. 18, 2013…ISSUED 10:50 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good morning!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms for PORTIONS LA/AR TO ERN KY AND CENTRAL GA…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY MAP

SPC THUNDERSTORM WIND PROBABILITY MAP


SPC HAIL PROBABILITY MAP

Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Information in the outlook suggest sufficient daytime heating should occur, which may allow for MUCAPE values to rise into the 1500-2000 j/kg by this afternoon, with the probability of increasing to 2000-2500 j/kg.  This would be the highest energy potential we’ve seen so far.  Analysis of various models this morning from F5 Data software indicates the most likelihood of severe thunderstorms  and possible tornadic activity lies within the following outlined areas…severe thunderstorms in blue, possible tornadic in red:

STS MAR18

STS MAR18 TOR

Some indicators within the software suite indicate that severe to tornadic are lower probabilities  however this will need to be watched closely  as given the nature of the forecast thermodynamics, could support a brief, conditional chance for tornadoes to spin-up.

Residents under the risk area, especially in AL. should monitor this situation closely, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio.  Please follow local NWS Statements and Warnings if issued.  For GA. residents, this same activity should e moving almost due east, and affect your area by this evening.

I will try to monitor as closely today as possible, and posting what I can on FaceBook as far as updated watches and warnings.  The Hazard map, radar, watches and Mesoscale maps are linked….just click on them.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING MAP

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC

Have a safe and blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER THREAT…MAR. 18, 2013…ISSUED 10:50 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It looks like my gang is out of harms way. Hopefully…I will have my WiFi hooked up tomorrow. The move to Littleton has kept me very busy over the past week. We’ve had good wx so that has helped. Thanks again and God Bless all of you!!:-)

  2. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm, as I said, I’ll report in and tell you what I received as far as snowfall goes. Saying, 1-3″ overnight, tonight. Then rain tomorrow during the day, and very windy.

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      Thanks LT!

      • furetvic says:

        Hello Stormw ! How are you feeling today?

        I will like to know if you’ll be available for an interview (live or recorded) sometimes at the end of May or the beginning of June, the topic “the hurricane season “.

        There is almost no weather related information home and the so called national weather service is not doing what it should .I plan for the upcoming hurricane season to better inform and prepared the people of my country (Haiti). The job I got at the TV (weather presenter) is just for this period and I will be honored to have you talking to my people and sharing your thoughts on the subject. I know you are a busy man ,but if you agree just let me know the time and condition that are best for you. Thanks again for everything you taught me here and at wunderground Stormw

        Sincerely yours
        Rudolph H. victor
        furetvic@yahoo.fr
        rudyvictor@yahoo.com

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