EASTERN U.S. STORM (POSSIBLE NORLUN SETUP) / SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…MAR. 15, 2013…ISSUED 4:40 P.M. EDT…PHFC

Good afternoon all!

Analysis this afternoon indicates what looks to be a NORLUN TROF type setup in about 4-5 days with the primary, stronger low being just off the coastal areas of Cape Cod and vicinity, bring moisture around to a secondary low centered north of the Great Lakes region,  just north of the Canadian border.  As the primary low sets up off the coast, snowfall totals may be heaviest to the NW of the center, and appears the Computer Model Output for snowfall accumulation targets the PA. area.

GFS 

ECMWF

With this type of setup however, exact location and amounts of snowfall can be difficult to pinpoint, depending on whether or not this feature moves, becomes stationary or moves quickly or slowly.  Isobar spacing is suggestive of some possible minor coastal flooding around VT and ME area at the time of high tide.  I will be monitoring this for any changes over the next couple of days, and will hopefully be here to keep you updated.

Elsewhere, if you remember my forecast from the 12th of the month, my analysis revealed to me that there could be a possible severe weather threat for a portion of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, around 5  days from that date.  The following was the map I posted on the 12th:

POSSIBLE SEVERE

Low and behold, the Storm Prediction Center has indicated the possibility for the Ohio Valley in the DAY 4 Probability Outlook

SPC DAY 4 PROBABILITY OUTLOOK

I will monitor this for any changes in location, and will update should any changes occur.

The AO is now indicating a possible Arctic outbreak as it’s forecast to become strongly negative near the 21st-23rd of the month.  Right now, it appears the blast will be confined north, and into the NE and New England areas.

GFS 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to EASTERN U.S. STORM (POSSIBLE NORLUN SETUP) / SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…MAR. 15, 2013…ISSUED 4:40 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Thanks Storm. I echo LT…damn your good!! For once…I can say stay warm LT…the AO looks to be doing us a favor for once. We enjoyed partly sunny skies and temps in the mid 70s. It will cool down tomorrow with a chance of rain…just in time for my move to DEN…oh well…we need it. Good luck Dellamom…you sound busy!! God Bless all of you!!

  2. dellamom says:

    They should just check your site once in awhile so they know what’s up! I hope your re-enactment is/was enjoyable. Our trial just got continued, and I will probably get out of here around 6:00 this evening. But after Saturday morning’s HeartWalk and Saturday afternoons birthday party for my younger granddaughter, I am OFF FOR THE WEEKEND!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, hope everything went well. Can you tell us about the “re-enactmrnt”? Yeah, you really “nailed” that severe weather threat (as usual)! I guess I’ll be in a “wintery”situation up here in SW CT. for the next 10-14 days or so. I’m wondering if I can get one more “good snow” up here, besides the cold temps. Thanks for keeping watch for me up here. LT

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