UPCOMING POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW / SEVERE WEATHER THREAT?…MAR. 12, 2013…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT…PHFC

Good day everyone!

Model analysis this morning still shows an upcoming winter system that may skirt the east coast IVO the MA., RI., NH., VT. area in about 8 days.  At the moment, models are still divergent on strength and exact location, however given precipitation will be loved  and looking at the spacing of the isobars on the 1000-500 mb thickness maps, residents in those ares should again be prepared to tackle possible blizzard conditions.  The coastal areas however, should be spared any coastal flooding, given most of the areas will be under a NW wind flow.  Strong winds and frozen precipitation could again cause power outages and downed power lines.  I expect to have more of an accurate picture on this, as model consensus should come together better at about 72 hours out.

GFS

ECMWF

GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY

Elsewhere, analysis of surface, and upper level charts seem to indicate to me there could possibly be a chance for some severe weather in about 5-7 days around the Ohio / Tennessee Valley region.  Confidence is low at the moment, however based on vorticity, upper level jetstreak, and negative tilt trof, the possibility could exist.

POSSIBLE SEVERE

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS, Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to UPCOMING POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW / SEVERE WEATHER THREAT?…MAR. 12, 2013…ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I’ll be watching that coastal development too for next week.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. We will be in the 70s on Friday…then another cooldown next week.

  3. judy orza says:

    http://vimeo.com/user16543306/review/59924639/491bd69174 just coming home thought i would share.

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