UPCOMING COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 04, 2013…ISSUED 3:20 P.M. EST…PHFC

Good afternoon everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center is not forecasting any severe weather threat over the next 3-5 days.

Elsewhere, I am looking at another coastal storm to take shape in about 54 – 60 hours from now, off the Mid Atlantic Coast.

Analysis of global models and regional models indicate this system to stay fairly close to the coast, with the system projected to deepen to around 989 mb (29.21 in.)

Based on the tight isobar spacing and precipitation behind the freezing line, the eastern seaboard from the Mid Atlantic region, northward, may want to be prepared for the possibility of blizzard conditions once again.  Analysis of isobar spacing and the current run of the Wave Watch 3 model output indicates sustained winds at the coast near 45-50 MPH.

GFS 

ECMWF

NAM

WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL (WAVES – WIND)

 

With an onshore flow from N.J., northward, I expect coastal flooding at the time of high tide along with beach erosion.  Widespread power outages and downed trees cannot be ruled out with this system, should  the intensity and location to the coast verify.

Minimum and Maximum temperatures for the week will stay mainly on the cold side over most of the nation, with the exception of milder temps in the SEUS.  Temps should begin to rebound nicely into next week.

GFSX TEMPERATURE FORECAST

GFS ACCUMULATED 120 HOUR SNOWFALL

You may follow real time information for your area by clicking on the NWS Hazard and Warning Map, and clicking on your area of interest.

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

INTELLICAST 48 HOUR SNOWFALL


I may not be on as much over the next couple of weeks, as I am scurrying to get new Hurricane Tracking software installed.  The GT 7 program I had, has had a major glitch and is no longer accessible.  I’ll be mainly on the severe weather mode during this time.  Yo can however go to our Lightning Weather site, which is under the links section on the right hand side of my page for excellent winter weather updates.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to UPCOMING COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…MAR. 04, 2013…ISSUED 3:20 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Thanks Storm. It sounds like that could be quite a system…sounds like you and LT are all over it. Stay safe up there. In DEN…we could be for quite a weekend system…should the Euro/GEM/Some GFS Ensemble members pan out. The GFS keeps it a little further North. There looks to be plenty of moisture to work with and temps look to hover around freezing…and then drop. We need the moisture…just not all at once!! Have a great day Storm…LT and everyone!!

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, hope you get your new Hurricane tracking program loaded without any “glitches”! The up coming storm on the East coast has been hard to predict, as far as how far up the coast it will turn. Some models push it almost due East off the coast and out to sea, due to that persistent area of low pressure over Northern Maine and Eastern Canada. Other models have that vortex weakening and finally moving East itself, thus allowing the coastal to move more North East. We’lll see what happens, I’ll report in and tell you and everyone just what I get here in SW CT. Thanks again, LT

    • DKMac says:

      Thanks Storm. LT, ya’ll are really getting hammered with severe weather the past several months up there in the NE! We’ve been hammered with rain (over 12 inches since Jan 1st) down here in SE Louisiana, but very little severe weather, yet.

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