WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK…MAR. 01, 2013…ISSUED 9:30 P.M. EST…PHFC

Good evening all!

I apologize for the lateness of this.

I really have no change in the forecast for the colder weather that will approach late this weekend into early next week.

Very cold polar air will dip south, and the majority of the country will be at or below freezing for minimum morning temperatures by Monday.  Very cold Polar air will make it into Florida as well, with freezing temperatures reaching close to central Florida.

Upon analysis of the GFS, ECMWF 850 mb temperatures, and the NAM 1000-500 mb thickness charts, the freezing line passes west central Florida as far south as the Ft. Myers area.

GFS

ECMWF

NAM

The current MOS Output still indicates minimum night time temperatures in central FL. to be on the side of the low to mid 40’s, with mid 30’s inland.  Given the fact the freezing line at both the 850 and 500 mb levels on both the GFS and NAM reaches the Ft. Myers/Naples area, I believe minimum temps may reach lower than projected in FL.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Given the temperature forecast, and precip behind the freezing line, I cannot rule out the possibility for very brief snow flurries for a portion of the west FL. area, albeit melting before reaching ground level.

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

INTELLICAST FROST AND FREEZE DISPLAY

COMPUTER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION

Have a great weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

 

 
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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK…MAR. 01, 2013…ISSUED 9:30 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Also Storm, NO APOLOGIES ever needed from you. We all appreciate any time you can give us your expertise!

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Much “excitement” up here about a possible STRONG Nor’Easter, for next Wed. or Thurs. The models keep “flip flopping” on it, and also if it would be snow up here if we get it at all. I won’t trust the models till say Monday or so. The storm itself has yet to enter the North West United States, so it’s a long way off. If you have any thoughts on it, I would love to hear them. In the mean time Storm and Monty, and Dellamom and Greg and all, have a great and restful weekend. LT Stamford CT.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Go figure…we are expecting some of the warmest temps of the season in DEN over the weekend. An upper level trough should pass North of us Sunday afternoon…here comes High Wind Criteria…warm into Thursday. Then…some Models are showing a possible Closed Low moving in Friday…this could get interesting. We have a foot of snow on the ground West of DEN…very thankful. But…please God…take it easy on us. Thanks again Storm!!

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