SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…FEB. 26, 2013…ISSUED 9:30 A.M. EST…PHFC

As promised  earlier today…looks like a decent shot of colder Polar air coming south for the weekend.  Analysis of 850 mb temp forecast maps from the GFS and ECMWF, 1000-500 mb thickness maps from the GFS indicates a shot of colder air coming as far south as Florida by Sunday.  Based on these maps, it looks as if the freezing line could reach central and west central Florida.  I did notice one thing strange however…the temperature forecast from the GFSX MOS indicates much warmer minimum temps than shown on the 850 mb charts.  Minimum temperatures indicated by the 850 mb charts for my area of Palm Harbor FL. near Tampa to reach near 29.0F – 32.0F, while the MOS output shows upper 40’s.  Will monitor to see whether or not MOS comes inline with the 850 mb temps.

At the moment, the GFS indicates light precipitation BEHIND  the zero deg. line of the 850 mb temps, and BEHIND the 540 line of the 1000-500 mb thickness.  This would tend to suggest some very light snow flurries in west central FL.  I will be monitoring subsequent model runs for consistency and other model agreement as I’m having a tendency to doubt this slightly wit lack of current forecast QPF.

GFS 850 MB CHART

ECMWF 850 MB CHART

Good morning!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over WRN/CENTRAL FL TO PORTIONS SERN NC…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis this morning, the extent of severity of the thunderstorms may be limited, as rainfall and cloudiness are putting somewhat of a damper on destabilization of the atmosphere…although given ample moisture flow, shear….heavy rain and damaging straight line winds should be the highlight, albeit supercells that may be already occurring may have enough rotation to drop a brief tornado within the risk area, especially under the TORNADO WATCH area.  This weather should be clearing the eastern seaboard by later this afternoon.

Please refer to the products posted for real time information updates as they are linked to their respective sites.

Residents under the risk area, or in the path of severe thunderstorms should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and Local NWS Office warnings and statements.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR DISPLAY

I will be posting later this afternoon on the upcoming colder weather for the weekend.

Stay Safe, and have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…FEB. 26, 2013…ISSUED 9:30 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    OK, I have an idiot question. I should know this, but on the maps above, the different colors are marked in the index on the side in increments of 2. I believe this map corresponds to temperatures and that the zero mark is freezing. Is this true? If so, what temperature variation is represented by each increment of 2? If not, please explain the significance of the color bar on the left. Thanks.

  2. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm we here in mobile have a chance of snow flurries in our forecast for saturday nite.Mr storm do yall have a chance in yall forecast.

  3. Thanks Storm. I had a busy day so sorry getting I’m getting back so late. I hope everything’s OK after the threat!!

  4. dellamom says:

    Thanks Storm. Be careful in that weather today. You are getting what passed through us yesterday. God bless you for all you do.

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, will check back in later.

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