As promised earlier today…looks like a decent shot of colder Polar air coming south for the weekend. Analysis of 850 mb temp forecast maps from the GFS and ECMWF, 1000-500 mb thickness maps from the GFS indicates a shot of colder air coming as far south as Florida by Sunday. Based on these maps, it looks as if the freezing line could reach central and west central Florida. I did notice one thing strange however…the temperature forecast from the GFSX MOS indicates much warmer minimum temps than shown on the 850 mb charts. Minimum temperatures indicated by the 850 mb charts for my area of Palm Harbor FL. near Tampa to reach near 29.0F – 32.0F, while the MOS output shows upper 40’s. Will monitor to see whether or not MOS comes inline with the 850 mb temps.
At the moment, the GFS indicates light precipitation BEHIND the zero deg. line of the 850 mb temps, and BEHIND the 540 line of the 1000-500 mb thickness. This would tend to suggest some very light snow flurries in west central FL. I will be monitoring subsequent model runs for consistency and other model agreement as I’m having a tendency to doubt this slightly wit lack of current forecast QPF.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms over WRN/CENTRAL FL TO PORTIONS SERN NC…
Based on analysis this morning, the extent of severity of the thunderstorms may be limited, as rainfall and cloudiness are putting somewhat of a damper on destabilization of the atmosphere…although given ample moisture flow, shear….heavy rain and damaging straight line winds should be the highlight, albeit supercells that may be already occurring may have enough rotation to drop a brief tornado within the risk area, especially under the TORNADO WATCH area. This weather should be clearing the eastern seaboard by later this afternoon.
Please refer to the products posted for real time information updates as they are linked to their respective sites.
Residents under the risk area, or in the path of severe thunderstorms should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and Local NWS Office warnings and statements.
I will be posting later this afternoon on the upcoming colder weather for the weekend.
Stay Safe, and have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)