SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…FEB. 25, 2013…ISSUED 12:40 P.M. EST…PHFC

Good afternoon!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of  ARKLATEX…GULF COASTAL PLAIN FROM E TX TO SWRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 1 TORNADO PROBABILITY

SPC DAY 1 DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITY

SPC DAY 1 HAIL PROBABILITY

Based on information contained in the outlook, and the current run of the SREF model, thermodynamics support mainly squall line type severe storms.  However, it is forecast that ample moisture and increasing SW – SSWLY shear will support more supercell type storms.  Given PWATS of 1.25 – 1.50 in…heavy rain could cause localized flooding.  The strengthening E. TX cold front, along with  modest surface heating, greater upper level divergence, and large scale ascent, should support thunderstorm development near and ahead of the advancing cold front.  These factors are forecast to “bust” the EML cap, which would initiate severe storms.  Given the increased prob of increasing instability, tornadic activity may be more prevalent in the risk area than we’ve seen over the past few days, however tornadic activity today may be more active closer to the warm front.  Later tonight and early Tues., influx of moist Maritime air could set conditions favorable for isolated strong tornadoes in the FL. Panhandle, and far S. GA.  Residents should keep a sharp awareness toward the sky today, and monitor NOAA Weather Radio.

Please use the following maps for updated real time information by clicking on them.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING MAP

INTELLICAST INTERACTIVE NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Have a safe day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…FEB. 25, 2013…ISSUED 12:40 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Strange things happen all the time!! Here in Port Aransas on the GOM the sustained winds were up to 45 mph and the gusts around 55. That’s Tropical Storm strengtth !! Had that LOW been out over the GOM it would have had us boarding up and heading inland !!

    And it’s only February.. What’s next ?

  2. Thanks Storm. I’ll pass this on to the gang in the SEUS. Severe season is definitely here!!

  3. DKMac says:

    Or looking out for hail!

    Check out this slideshow of hail pictures on the westbank taken last night. If the link doesn’t work, go to WWLTV.com.

    http://www.wwltv.com/news/slideshows/Eyewitnesses-see-hail-near-their-homes-193003431.html?gallery=y&c=y#/news/slideshows/Eyewitnesses-see-hail-near-their-homes-193003431.html?gallery=y&c=y&img=0&c=y

  4. originallt says:

    Hi Storm and all. Just got back from my R&R on the “high seas”! Was on a cruise to the Carribean, on the Enchantment of the Seas, a Royal Carribean ship. We had a great time. It’s an 81,000 ton ship, 990 ft. long, but it is far from their biggest, which weighs in at 220,000 tons! I got my “sea legs” right away, we encountered some rough seas 1 day out after we left Baltimore for San Juan. The seas were running 13-20ft, and we had a moderate gale blowing out of the West. Many people on board were sick, but NOT me! My whole family did well. After that day it calmed down slowly. Our other stops included, St. Thomas V.I., Dominican Republic, and northern Haiti. Had a great time. Now back to reality! Take care everyone. LT.

  5. dellamom says:

    Thank you for your hard work, Storm. I had thought the rain threat would be over this morning but realize I must have had my AMs and PMs mixed up, because we are under a band of intense rain and thunder right now in Madisonville, Louisiana, and there is a trailing band on radar that will probably go through our area later this evening. We are fully inside of the rain/tornado/wind area on the maps above, and immediatey to the east of the hail area. It appears most of the worst will be to our north today, and most of the worst was to my south last night. (The Mississippi turns east for a bit through the New Orleans area, and the Westbank is actually south of the Eastbank, not west of it.) But as soggy as we are already, low lying areas and river plains will be flooded and people in marginal areas need to start looking for snakes and gators.

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      My pleasure! I don’t think they’ll have to look for those critters…I think the critters will find them!

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