SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…FEB. 22, 2013,,,ISSUED 1:15 P.M. EST..PHFC

Good day everyone!

The SPC does not indicate any severe weather over the next 3 days, but does indicate the probability of Severe Thunderstorms in the day 4 probability outlook for portions of FL., AL., GA., and SC.

SPC DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

Analysis of F5 Data software severe parameters from the GFS, NAM-WRF, and NOGAPS models tend to suggest the possible severe threat could be possibly further north during the noon to early evening hours, shifting southward late in the evening, in which I have outlined with green for northern parameters, and blue for southern parameters.  Based on SWEAT Index value parameters, Total Totals Index, Showalter Index, Lifted Index, etc.  we could be looking at mainly isolated severe thunderstorms, which appears to be around a 50/50 chance.

day48prob

It appears based on information in the current report, that storms are likely to be linear…however the formation of any surface based mesocyclones could have the potential to spawn isolated tornadoes.  I will continue to monitor this, and will update on Monday morning.

Have a great weekend!

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…FEB. 22, 2013,,,ISSUED 1:15 P.M. EST..PHFC

  1. Santiago says:

    Storm what do you think of tche GFS forecast at the end of the run, jet stream dipping crazy low and a hybrid storm off GA?

  2. Thanks Storm. That looks like your neck of the woods. Stay safe down there and have a great weekend!!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s