SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…FEB.21, 2013…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EST…PHFC

Good day!

The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms OVER PARTS OF EAST TX…MUCH OF LA…AND SOUTHERN MS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on analysis of the outlook, and Severe Weather software, F5 Data, any severe thunderstorms should be limited to the risk area, mainly closer to the eastern portion later tonight.  Parameters indicate mainly hail and wind.  The severe threat is limited due to drier upper level conditions.  However as the system shifts eastward, ample surface moisture could provide the instability needed to initiate severe weather over MS tonight into early morning hours.  This is pretty much a conditional threat, as limited daytime heating will limit CAPE values, however any increased instability could lead to some isolated tornadoes.  Please refer to the maps, which are linked to their specific sites, for real time updated information.

SPC CURRENT CONVECTIVE WATCH DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

NWS HAZARDS AN WARNING MAP…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR ANIMATION (INTERACTIVE)

The SPC has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST STATES…

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…FEB.21, 2013…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    The truly nasty stuff seems to be passing to my north. Thunderstorm & flood watches at Jackson, Ms./Thunderstorm & Tornado watches midway between Alexandria, Louisiana and Jackson, MS, headed to Jackson. Keep them in your prayers tonight, please. I’m sure they’d be deleriously excited to send some of that rain to anyone who wants it.

  2. Thanks Storm. It looks like the IAH threat has passed…good!! Stay safe Dellamom. We just got some much needed moisture…in the form of snow. I’ll take a thunderstorm any day!!

  3. dellamom says:

    Gee,the northshore house is in the eastern portion of Day 1, and teh southshorehouse is in the western portion of Day 2. Lucky me! At least it isn’t snow. Thanks, Storm, for keeping us posted on what to expect, and I will be looking for that severe weather that may hit the eastern segment (me) later today or tonight. I just got back to the office and it was beginning to sprinkle, but the radar is showing the heavy stuff (yellows and reds) just to my west and about to pounce.

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