SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…FEB. 20, 2013…ISSUED 3:30 P.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Information contained in the outlook, as well as analysis of numerous severe weather parameters from F5 Data software indicate mainly elevated storms for the period.  However, data suggests that the threat for severe weather will increase between 6:00 p.m. – 10:00 P.M. CST.  Based on this, severe weather will most likely be experienced, with the possible threat for tornadic activity should some of these storms become surface based.  Main threat based on previous soundings and current parameters indicate hail and damaging thunderstorm winds.  The forecast parameters indicate a SWEAT value of 400-400+, High Helicity, and an increase in CAPE values, indicative of a more favorable severe environment which may spawn isolated tornadoes within the risk area, however pointing mainly toward the red hatched area.

day1otlk_2000

Please visit this site often, as all maps will update automatically.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNING DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Residents in the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local news and emergency management sites.

Stay Safe!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…FEB. 20, 2013…ISSUED 3:30 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    Locals are predicting a warm front backing over us followed by a cold front pushing through. Expecting severe storms tomorrow evening, with a 70% rain chance tomorrow, 80% next day, followed by several days of 50%. At this rate, we’ll need to break out the machetes to cut through the grass once it dries up enough to walk on it. Don’t think the riding mower or the tractor are gonna be up to it since neither has pontoons.

  2. dellamom says:

    MSY? Moisant? That’s me! Didn’t know you had connections in my neck of the woods.

  3. Thanks Storm. I’ll pass this along to people in DFW…IAH…MAF…SJT…SHV and MSY. It looks like we have a shot at Thunderstorms in Colorado…quite a bit of instability forecast on Wednesday.

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