SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…FEB.18, 2013…ISSUED 3:30 P.M. EST…PHFC

Good day  everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the ARKLATEX region.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY

Based on information contained in the outlook, and current analysis of severe weather parameters, the main threat with this could be limited to hail and strong winds, albeit isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

Analysis of these parameters leads me to believe the area for greatest risk of severe weather will be located within the outlined SLIGHT risk area…however later in the afternoon to early evening, this may shift slightly further to the NNE over more of Arkansas.

The SPC has also indicated a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms in the Day 3 Outlook, and indicates a probability of severe thunderstorms in the Day 4 Outlook.

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 4 PROBABILITY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

These areas will be addressed as they become the current Day 1 Outlook.

Elsewhere, a powerful low pressure system centered north of the Great Lakes region will bring strong winds out of the NW and Lake Effects Snow to parts of the NE within the next 36 hours, reinforcing the extremely cold weather.

GFS FORECAST MAP

Depending on what my week looks like, I hope to be able to cover all of this for you.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…FEB.18, 2013…ISSUED 3:30 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    God help the Northeast! Seems like those who didn’t get it in Sandy or the past couple of systems are now going to get it from the Lakes. Thank you, Storm, for being a literal port in the storm for those of us who are, at any given time, facing a weather crisis. We rest easier knowing that we can count on you to let us know what you see happening out there. Those of us who experienced Katrina/Rita/Gustav/Isaac (oh, and lets not forget the oil spill!) can truly feel the pain in the Northeast as they are hit by one blow after another. They, too, are reeling under a succession of natural and man-made impacts. My prayers go out to them. They can rest assured that, no matter how nasty the rest of the nation gets as their need for aid drags on, those of us down here can relate and truly undersand. God bless you, Storm, for all you do.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s