COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…FEB. 11, 2013…ISSUED 11:35 A.M. EST…PHFC

LATE UPDATE:  The SPC issued a very small SLIGHT risk area over the FL. Panhandle just after 2:00 p.m. EST today.  The main threat appears to be wind, possibly some hail.  There is also a SLIGHT risk now in the Day 2 Outlook.  This will be analyzed in the morning.

SPC CURRENT DAY 1 OUTLOOK

SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK

Good afternoon everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center does not indicate any Severe Weather threat over the next 5 days.  However, with another system approaching, I will keep an eye on this and will be analyzing things as the week goes on.

Elsewhere, there are varying differences in the Global Model projections this morning, however if the GFS is correct in it’s solution, the area which just went through the winter storm, could see the same, if not worse scenario late weekend to first day of next week.  The GFS solution indicates a very powerful 968 mb low to be in position off the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, over the NJ/Long Island area.  This strength of low can produce hurricane force winds.  This solution has some support from the CMC GGEM model, while the ECMWF is much further east and weaker.  Should this come to fruition, another round of Blizzard conditions, extreme snow, and freezing weather could be in store again for the NE and New England states.  Being this is fairly out in the medium range, I’ll be analyzing further model runs for any changes to either model output.

GFS

CMC GGEM

ECMWF

The AO index has backed off quite a bit on the negative dip near mid month, meaning we may not see an Arctic intrusions as previously forecast.  Polar air will cover most of the U.S. however, with fairly cold minimum temperatures for this week, with the extreme southern Gulf coast region staying fairly mild.

AO INDEX

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…FEB. 11, 2013…ISSUED 11:35 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Thanks Storm. That’s just what the NEUS needs. it looks like the Euro keeps it off shore compared to the CMC/GFS solutions…and the Euro has performed almost as well as you have!! Good for the AO…positive baby!! Thanks again Storm!!

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      However, the GFS pretty much nailed this last storm. Euro showed it weaker than it was.

      • Good point…the GFS performed well all Hurricane season. I guess I’m just bias on a weaker EC solution…as it appears to be showing again.

        • palmharborforecastcenter says:

          Most of the time, the EURO handles these patterns better…although the GFS did well in the hurricane season, if I remember correctly, when the time comes for transition from summer to winter, I think they make certain adjustments to the models to handle winter and fall scenarios. However, the GFS as seen, pretty much nailed this past winter storm.

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