Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS…
Based on information in the outlook, current and forecast soundings values around the area, the main threat appears to be hail and damaging wind. Most storms should be in the category of QLCS and low topped cells. However, IVO the dryline, where the cold front will overtake it, any strong surfaced based cells can produce the threat of some isolated tornadoes.
Based on analysis of forecast severe weather parameters from the GFS, NAM-WRF, and RAP models, any tornadic activity that may occur should remain limited to the area outlined in the tornado prob. map. However, given the high 0-1 km and 0-6 km helicity values, SWEAT index, and some other severe indices, I cannot rule out later in the evening, possible tornadic activity as mentioned, in the area outlined on the following map.
Residents under the risk area are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local NWS office statements, and local Emergency Management officials.
SPC has also indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current Day 2 Convective Outlook, which will be addressed as tomorrow’s Day 1 Outlook.
Have a blessed and safe weekend!