SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…FEB 09, 2013…ISSUED 12:50 P.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Based on information in the outlook, current and forecast soundings values around the area, the main threat appears to be hail and damaging wind.  Most storms should be in the category of QLCS and low topped cells.  However, IVO the dryline, where the cold front will overtake it, any strong surfaced based cells can produce the threat of some isolated tornadoes.

Based on analysis of forecast severe weather parameters from the GFS, NAM-WRF, and RAP models, any tornadic activity that may occur should remain limited to the area outlined in the tornado prob. map.   However, given the high 0-1 km and 0-6 km helicity values, SWEAT index, and some other severe indices, I cannot rule out later in the evening, possible tornadic activity as mentioned, in the area outlined on the following map.

day1probotlk_1630_torn

Residents under the risk area are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local NWS office statements, and local Emergency Management officials.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARD MAP (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (INTERACTIVE)

SPC has also indicated a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms in the current Day 2 Convective Outlook, which will be addressed as tomorrow’s Day 1 Outlook.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Have a blessed and safe weekend!

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…FEB 09, 2013…ISSUED 12:50 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, and Monty for your best wishes. Storm, just want to correct and up-date the crazy blizzard totals we had here in CT. Hamden Ct. got 40″!!!, Milford CT. officially received 38″!!!, New Haven got, 34″!! and Bridgeport, only about 20-25 miles to my North East, received, 30″. Just incredible. On NYC. TV WNBC said we here in Stamford got 19″, but I really think it was closer to 15″. They also said Yonkers NY received 23″ but I’m not too sure that’s really true. My sister in law lives in New Rochelle NY, right near the Hutchinson Parkway, and she got about 12-14″. And she lives only about 5 miles East as the crow flies from Yonkers, so you can’t always believe what you read.

  2. Thanks Storm. I’m sending out your synopsis to the gang in TX/LA/MS. I guess it’s time to get used to this again. Hurricane season is right around the corner. It’s very comforting to know I have the Jedi Master on my side!! I hope everything is the best it can possibly be LT and everyone up there in the NEUS…my Prayers are with all of you…God Bless!! Thanks again Storm!!

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