DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM / BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SYNOPSIS… FEB. 07, 2013…ISSUED 11:10 A.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center indicates a SLIGHT risk for Severe Thunderstorms in the Day 3 Convective Outlook.

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Elsewhere, a powerful Nor’easter / Coastal Development will be getting underway within the next 24 hours.  A low pressure area over the northern regions, will phase with a developing system over the SE around or south of the VA area.  Once phased, this low will begin to deepen as it continues to move NEWD.

GFS

ECMWF

NAM

Given the nature of the pressure gradient in the northern portion of this system, residents within the onshore easterly, to NE flow can expect sustained winds of around 55-65 mph.  Waves are forecast to around 18-24 ft over the Gulf of Maine, and 27-33 ft around 40N, SEWD to 65W.

WAVEWATCH MODEL

Given that there will be snow on the NW side of this, I expect blizzard conditions from Mass., northward, with some of the worst conditions affecting the Cape Cod area.

COMPUTER MODEL SNOWFALL OUTPUT 120  HOURS

Based on the forecast wave height, wind velocity and fetch, Residents along these areas may experience beach erosion, and coastal flooding at the time of high tide.  ALL Marine traffic should remain inport or in safe harbor.  I cannot rule out some widespread power outages.

I will have further updates on this developing situation as warranted.

The long range GFS is still consistent with another shot of Arctic air for the eastern portion of the U.S. near mid month, with freezing temperatures reaching possibly to the Florida Panhandle.

850 MB TEMPERATURES LONG RANGE

Have a great day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM / BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SYNOPSIS… FEB. 07, 2013…ISSUED 11:10 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Also Storm, I’ll report the wind speeds and direction(s) and the Barometer’s lowest point. And the Temps. during the storm.

  2. Wow Storm…the more I keep up with this thing…the worse it seems to be getting. Could this Nor’easter rival Superstorm Sandy?

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, and Monty. Yeah, snow amount forecasts have been all over the place for me in SW CT. Any where from 6″ to 16″! I’ll report in of course on Sat. Morning to tell you what I received(As long as I have power, that is!).

  4. Thanks Storm. BOS could get 2 feet…one for the record books!! Stay safe up there LT!!

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