CURRENT WINTER PATTERN SYNOPSIS…FEB. 04, 2013…ISSUED 5:30 P.M. EST…PHFC

Good evening everyone!

Hope your weekend was well!

Not too much to speak of on the weather front.

The SPC does not indicate any severe weather over the next week, but as always, this will be monitored for any changes.

Upon analysis of the GFS and ECMWF computer models, and the NAO/AO indices, the pattern does not look to change much, if at all over the next 7 days.  I’m looking at fairly mild maximum temperatures over much of the U.S. this week, however freezing to below freezing minimum temperatures will remain in place over much of the west and northern 3/4 of the country.  Some features noted however, which are in the long range out to 14-16 days…the GFS is showing a low sliding off the east coast south of Bermuda, becoming cutoff, and becoming warm core.  I’m not totally buying this right now, but will keep abreast of it.  In about 12-14 days, based on the AO and the computer models, we could see another shot of Arctic air coming further south than the last one, with possible freezing temps into central FL.  Again, this is out to 360 hours, and will most likely change.  So far, in my professional opinion, this winter has been inline with a La Nina winter signal.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

GFSX MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Have a great evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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11 Responses to CURRENT WINTER PATTERN SYNOPSIS…FEB. 04, 2013…ISSUED 5:30 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    Local 7 day showing rain every day except Saturday, with highs in the 60s and 70s. Showing 50% chance of rain on Monday. It does not seem likely we will have a sunny Mardi Gras this year, but at least it appears temperatures will be mild.

    • Hey Dellamom…it is looking more and more that we may get our first significant Winter Storm of the season…still a little too early to tell.

      • dellamom says:

        Monty, is this a little late for y’all? Seems like I remember last year was earlier for you, but since I sometimes can’t remember yesterday, I could be mistaken about that. February is usually the latest we have any threat of snow here, and most years we don’t have any at all. When we do get snow, you probably wouldn’t even conisder it real snow, and everything comes to a screeching halt. Watching most people down here try to drive in it is amazing. Last time I remember actually having to drive in snow and ice, I had an ’82 firebird with wide rear tires, standard transmission, and I took 4 coworkers home because I was the only one who’d ever driven in snow before.

  2. greg goodman says:

    Thanks mr storm for the update. I want to say i want to thank mr storm and everybody on here for praying for my daddy. My dad is in the last stage of liver cancer and will be going home soon to be with the lord. Mr storm hurricane season is almost here.

    • originallt says:

      Greg, My prayers continue for you and your family, GOD bless you all.

    • dellamom says:

      Greg, I am sorry your dad is not doing well, but happy that his faith is strong. I lost my dad in 1974 … he was 39 and my sister and I were 16 and 15, respectively. But it doesn’t matter how long you’ve had your parents or how old you are when you lose them, it is always too soon. My dad battled leukemia for 18 months and, like you, my sister and I had time to have special times and say our goodbyes, so we were not burdened with regrets on top of our grief. To me, that was a gift from the Lord to him and to us, that we were able to let each other know how much we loved him and how much he loved us back. My prayers continue for your dad and for your family to remain strong and united with his passing.

    • I echo LT prayers headed your way Greg.

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      Prayers are with you and your family, Greg! I know it isn’t easy, but I hope he finds peace soon. Our Lord is with him.

  3. originallt says:

    Thank you Storm.

  4. You can keep the COLD precip. up north but we’ll welcome anything short of a Cat 1 down here in far south TX !!!

  5. Thanks Storm. We are looking at a possible significant Winter Weather Event this coming weekend…at least if you believe the GEM. Obviously the Models are still all over the place in handling the Closed Low. We need moisture so…as much as I hate snow…I hope the Canadian Model is right!!

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