The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms FROM TX NORTHEAST TO IL AND EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY in the DAY 3 Convective Outlook
Information contained in the outlook indicates models are now in better agreement of a possible fairly widespread swath of severe weather within the risk area. Currently, we are waiting for update information tomorrow from the models to determine tornadic activity, and whether or not there could be a possible upgrade to a MODERATE risk.
Based on careful analysis of various severe weather parameters, indexes, and mid to upper level air charts, the area in question will be under a fairly strong 200 mb jetstreak, strong mid level jet, and ample moisture from 850 mb to 500 mb. One inhibiting factor based on my current analysis may be wind shear, as the current display of the BRN Shear Values are greater than 50 over the area, indicating too much shear for tornadic activity, however these values would support strong multi cell thunderstorms and squall line development. Albeit, based on the other factors analyzed, at this particular time, if tornadic activity becomes favorable, it appears right now the greatest threat would be within the red hatched area I have drawn.
Once again, I suspect this could change with updated information on tomorrows model runs. I will be keeping close tabs on this system, and analyzing parameters, and various charts for any change in information. Although I will be at the college on Tues., I should be around in time to monitor the situation, as the event may not initiate until late afternoon.
The SPC also indicates a possibility of severe weather in the Day 4 Outlook, however this will be addressed once it’s assigned a risk category.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)