URGENT…SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST UPDATE…JAN. 27, 2013…ISSUED 5:35 P.M. EST…PHFC

Good evening!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk for severe thunderstorms FROM TX NORTHEAST TO IL AND EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY in the DAY 3 Convective Outlook

SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Information contained in the outlook indicates models are now in better agreement of a possible fairly widespread swath of severe weather within the risk area.  Currently, we are waiting for update information tomorrow from the models to determine tornadic activity, and whether or not there could be a possible upgrade to a MODERATE risk.

Based on careful analysis of various severe weather parameters, indexes, and mid to upper level air charts, the area in question will be under a fairly strong 200 mb jetstreak, strong mid level jet, and ample moisture from 850 mb to 500 mb.  One inhibiting factor based on my current analysis may be wind shear, as the current display of the BRN Shear Values are greater than 50 over the area, indicating too much shear for tornadic activity, however these values would support strong multi cell thunderstorms and squall line development.  Albeit, based on the other factors analyzed, at this particular time, if tornadic activity becomes favorable, it appears right now the greatest threat would be within the red hatched area I have drawn.

day3otlk_0830

Once again, I suspect this could change with updated information on tomorrows model runs.  I will be keeping close tabs on this system, and analyzing parameters, and various charts for any change in information.  Although I will be at the college on Tues., I should be around in time to monitor the situation, as the event may not initiate until late afternoon.

The SPC also indicates a possibility of severe weather in the Day 4 Outlook, however this will be addressed once it’s assigned a risk category.

Stay tuned!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to URGENT…SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST UPDATE…JAN. 27, 2013…ISSUED 5:35 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Could be an interesting week. Hope every body will be safe. Just started snowing up here, light snow. A warm front is coming thru, and all the precip. should change over to sleet then freezing rain then regular rain. Could be 55-60F by Wed.! Then maybe some T. Storms up here. I’ll let you know what I get. LT.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Wow…that’s a big risk area!! I’ll definitely pass this on to interests in IAH…SAT…DFW…SHV…MEM…STL ands ORD. The SPC is nice…but you ROCK!! Thanks always Senior Chief!!

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