NEXT ARCTIC SYSTEM SYNOPSIS…JAN. 21, 2013…ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

First, I just wanted to let you know, I haven’t forgotten our family here.  I had an excellent job opportunity pop up prior to the weekend, and had to jump on it quickly…so I had to fill out an application, go through my Military records for supporting documents, write a resume, and deliver everything.

The Storm Prediction Center does not indicate any severe weather threats over the next 5-7 days.

Upon analysis of Global Models, and the NAEFS Ensemble system, it appears another shot of Arctic air will intrude the U.S. near the end of this  month, into the first 3 days of Feb.  Analysis of the 00Z ECMWF shows a quicker sot in the pattern, and lifting out, while the GFSX and NAEFS tend to indicate a little deeper extent and a litter slower warming.

GFSX 850 MB TEMPERATURE PATTERN


NAEFS ENSEMBLE 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Based on analysis of current temperature forecast maps, this appears to affect mainly nighttime low temperatures, in where most of the country will experience freezing or below freezing temperatures, with maximum daytime temps rebounding to milder levels.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

GFSX MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR…SNOW, ICE, RAIN

The following is the forecast snowfall accumulation from the ETA and GFS models

ETA 84 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION

GFS 120 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL

Unless any severe threat pops up, I doubt if I update tomorrow, as I am at the college tutoring.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to NEXT ARCTIC SYSTEM SYNOPSIS…JAN. 21, 2013…ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. ho77yw00d says:

    congrats Storm that is awesome! maybe now change will happen… Hope all is well and hello to all my weather friends! “D”

    • originallt says:

      Great to hear from you “D”! Hope you are well Like your new picture, but it shows up side-ways on my screen. No matter, you still are beautiful! Take care.

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      OMG! The goddess is back! Thank you “D”! Hope you’ve been well darlin.

  2. originallt says:

    Best of luck on that possible job Storm. My friends and I like that idea about armed guards at schools. My daughter and wife are both teachers, my daughter at a high school, and my wife in elementary. After the CT. shootings they put one guard in each school(I believe the H.S. has two) but they are UN-ARMED, what a joke. They couldn’t do a thing if someone showed up like that guy did in Newtown, they would probably run and hide! We said,(my friends and I) that armed guards should be in the schools maybe that would be a good job for returning Vets, once they do a proper back ground check on each. Again best of luck. Early call for up to half a foot of snow on Friday here in Sw CT. and the North East in general. We’ll see.

  3. Thanks Storm and CONGRATULATIONS on your new job!! What will you be doing? The low tonight In Bottineau, ND will be-20F…OUCH!!

    • palmharborforecastcenter says:

      Thanks Monty. Well, I don’t have it yet…they have over 100 resumes to go over…they said takes about 3-4 months. I’ll be armed security at one of the elementary schools in a neighboring county.

      • It’s about time!! We need armed security guards in all of out schools. We..I wish you the best of luck. Remember…gun control means using both hands!!

        • dellamom says:

          Amen to that, Monty. Good for you, Storm. I know your military experience will count for a lot, and we will miss the time you have devoted to us, but know you have to do what is best for you and your family. I do hope, however, that you will be able to keep a finger in, even if not a whole hand, because we value your friendship, personality, humor and kindness every bit as much as your expertise. Best wishes to you, my friend.

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