SEVERE WEATHER / ARCTIC INTRUSION SYNOPSIS…JAN. 16, 2013…ISSUED 10:30 A.M. EST…PHFC

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center still does not indicate any severe weather threat over the next 5 days.

SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS PAGE

Not really any change to the forecast I’ve been speaking of over the past week.  I am still expecting the Arctic Blast to arrive in about 6-7 days.  Very cold air will make it possibly as far south as Northern FL., where overnight low temps at that time could be flirting with freezing.  North of there, looking for most of the U.S to be under freezing to below freezing conditions as this comes to fruition.  Lows in Central FL. could range around the upper 30’s to low 40’s during those days overnight.  Once this event falls under the 72 hour forecast mark, should have a better idea on how cold it will actually become, as computer model analysis tends to indicate a slight pulling north of the freezing temperatures to around south GA.

GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURE MAP

ECMWF 850 MB TEMPERATURE MAP

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

The following are the current computer snowfall output maps from the ETA and GFS models.

ETA 84 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION

GFS 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

I will be following this through the week, however I will post again Friday, unless a threat for severe weather pops up.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / ARCTIC INTRUSION SYNOPSIS…JAN. 16, 2013…ISSUED 10:30 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. javier valdes says:

    will cold air get south fl?

  2. dellamom says:

    We haven’t seen the sun much here since Christmas. Friday, Saturday and Sunday are supposed to be sunny, which is good because I am moving my things from my house in Mandeville, where my mother is stilll living, to my husband’s house in Mandeville and would hate to do it in the rain. Also, daytime temps are supposed to be in the 50s and low 60s, which is better than the 40s we have now. I will also be taking down my weather station components, which I have not been able to use thus far, and bringing them to the Chalmette (Southshore) house. I’ve had it a year and have not had it consistently up and running except for temperature readings in all that time. The rain gauge was set up but never did record for some reason. I do have a manual gauge which will also be coming to Chalmette. Monty, I don’t know how you do it, but I’d be screaming for the sun belt right about now, even if it’s not so sunny at present.

  3. Thanks Storm. We’re finally pulling out of another week long deep freeze. Temps struggled to hit 15F a couple of days. Lows west of DEN got down to -40F with a 15 to 20 mph wind. Hopefully…you guys won’t get it as bad!!

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. We wound up with 1.5-2″ of snow here in Stamford CT. The precip. has stopped now and the temp. is rising, up to 33F. Baro. is starting to rise at 29.98″ Wind is NE to NW but very light. It’s totally cloudy.

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