SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS / ARCTIC BLAST FORECAST…JAN. 14, 2013…ISSUED 11:35 A.M. EST…PHFC

Good day all!

I know there was some severe weather over the weekend.  This was not indicated in the SPC outlooks prior to my taking off for the weekend.  I do have to say though, I MUST take the weekends off, in order to avoid burnout.  In the event a significant outbreak could occur, I will be on.

The SPC doesn’t indicate any severe weather threat again, over the next 3-5 days.  However based on my analysis this morning of mid and upper air charts, I feel there COULD be a possible area for a slight chance of severe thunderstorms over a small portion of the SE by Friday.  I will be analyzing this over the course of the week, and see if it comes to fruition.  I do have a link on the sidebar for the SPC for those who wish to keep up to date if I am not available.

SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS PAGE

Elsewhere, I am looking at a brief cool down over the U.S. around the 18th.  Based on my analysis of the Global and Ensemble computer models, it appears the first Arctic Blast of the season may take shape around the 23rd-24th of this month.   Models agree on freezing minimum temperatures reaching as far south at this time, to the GA/FL line, if not a little further into the northern portion of FL.  I will be watching and addressing this throughout the week.  I will be at the college on Tuesday and Thursday but will try to update prior to leaving for class.

GFS 850MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST 216 HOURS
06zgfs850mbTSLPNA216

ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST 216 HOURS
00zeuro850mbTSLPUS216

GFSX MINIMUM/MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER SYNOPSIS / ARCTIC BLAST FORECAST…JAN. 14, 2013…ISSUED 11:35 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Thanks Storm. Please don’t burnout. We need you!! We have one more day in the deep freeze in DEN. I’m definitely getting sick of the cold. Stay warm Storm…LT and all in the path of the Arctic outbreak.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Definitely do NOT want you to burn out! Health is first. Yeah, that long range temp. out-look you posted for 10 days or so out, looks REAL COLD for me up here in the Northeast–and even for you guys (and gals) in the South!. Also, to Monty, I heard it is real cold in Colorado now, what Temps. do you have now? I hit 60F a half hour ago when the sun came out, now it’s cloudy again and it’s down to 57F.

  3. I’m selfish enough to suggest that you avoid all “burnouts” if that will keep you in shape for the annual hurricane season. That’s when The Beachbums need you the most!.

    Thank you Chief !

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